Week 6 of the NFL season will conclude with a doubleheader of Monday Night Football action. In the first game, Kyle Pitts and the Atlanta Falcons will take on the Buffalo Bills in search of a statement victory.
Buffalo is off to a 4-1 start to the season, while the Falcons are 2-2 and coming off the bye week. It has been a bizarre start to Atlanta’s season with two victories over the Commanders and Vikings, where it has looked fairly impressive. But the Falcons have also dropped a pair of games to the Buccaneers and Panthers, with the loss to Carolina finishing in a 30-0 blowout. They have plenty of rest on their side and hopefully will be prepared following the bye, but it is still unclear exactly who the Falcons are as a football team and where they rank in the league.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bills enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds on the moneyline. The Falcons hold +180 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 49.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Kyle Pitts prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Kyle Pitts Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Pitts Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It has been an interesting career for Kyle Pitts to this point. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in the 2021 season, recording 1,026 receiving yards and looking to be on the path to one of the top tight ends in football. But Pitts has failed to record more than 667 receiving yards in a season since, and he has grown into an overall polarizing player.
Michael Penix Jr.’s emergence as the quarterback has changed Pitts’ outlook in the Falcons’ offense. Through the first four games this season, the Florida product has pulled in 20 receptions on 24 targets for 205 yards and a touchdown. He is seeing an impressive 18.3% target share and averaging 51.3 receiving yards per game, the most since his rookie season.
While this is an extremely positive sign, this is a tough matchup for Pitts. The Bills have allowed just 113 total receiving yards to the tight end position this season, which is the second-best rate in the NFL. Hunter Henry has been the only tight end to record over 42.5 receiving yards against the Bills, with two receptions for 46 yards. They limited Mark Andrews to just one reception for five yards, limited the Jets to 83 total passing yards, with just 10 yards to the tight end position, and limited Juwan Johnson to 28 receiving yards.
Pitts has his own self-inflicted ups and downs, which have been further magnified playing alongside his young quarterback. He has posted receiving totals of 70, 39, 37 and 59 yards so far this year. The Bills likely have the best overall defense the Falcons have played so far, and they certainly have the best tight end coverage Pitts has faced this year. He averaged fewer than 40 receiving yards per game over each of the past three seasons and finished below this total in two of the four games this year. Expect Buffalo to make its impact felt and limit his impact on this game. Count on Pitts being held to fewer than 42.5 receiving yards for the third time this season.
Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 Receptions (+112)
Pitts has been heavily involved in the offense, with at least four receptions and at least five targets in all four games so far this year. But I am expecting that to change, given how impressive Buffalo has been at stopping opposing tight ends.
Looking at just the number of receptions, no tight end has had more than three receptions against the Bills. Opposing tight ends are averaging 2.2 receptions per game overall. The Falcons are the only team to have allowed fewer receptions to opposing tight ends, making this the toughest matchup Pitts could face.
There is no disputing his overall talent, but Pitts still has some refinement to go in his skill set. Penix Jr. can also be erratic in his accuracy, which is a concern. This was put on full display in the blowout loss to the Panthers, in which Penix had a 50% completion percentage and a pair of interceptions. Expect him to be bothered a bit by a Bills defense that is allowing the second-fewest passing yards and ranks seventh in net yards per pass attempt. Count on Pitts to feel the effects of this and be held below 3.5 receptions for the first time this season, just as he has in 31 of his past 44 games over the previous three seasons.
