One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Under on total when home underdog did not play the previous day
This is one of the better MLB systems you’ll find in the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub. On the season, this play has gone 28-15-2. Despite a recent 2-3 stretch over the last seven days, this play has also hit over 78% of the time over the last 30 days (15-4).
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- PIT vs. SF
- CIN vs. SD
- CHC vs. ATL
The Pirates and Giants get the nod, and it comes down to the matchups.
Pittsburgh has the lowest ISO against right-handed pitching in all of baseball, as well as the second-lowest wOBA and a 24.6% strikeout rate. This puts Logan Webb in a great spot to continue his string of strong starts.
The Giants aren’t quite that bad against left-handed pitching, but it’s not like they’re good against them either. San Fran has a .133 ISO and a .307 wOBA against lefty pitchers, both of which rank middle of the pack across MLB. This is a nice opportunity for Martin Perez to bounce back after getting pummeled by the Brewers.
SYSTEM PICK FOR MAY 21
SF-PIT under 8.5 runs +100
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SYSTEM: NRFI when AL is at home vs. NL
This play continues to consistently perform. In the last seven days, the play is 7-4. That’s brought the system up to 58-38 on the season, which is a hit rate over 60%.
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Two games fit this system on Tuesday:
- CLE vs. NYM
- OAK vs. COL
Cal Quantrill is on the mound for the Rockies in Oakland, and he’s having a very strong month. Over 19 2/3 innings in May, he’s only given two runs. He’s only had to throw in Colorado once during that stretch, but one outing at Coors is all it takes to ruin a quality stretch.
Aaron Brooks is coming off a very strong start vs. the Astros. Although he gave up two runs to open that game, Houston is a much more challenging lineup to navigate than Colorado. The Rockies have a .138 ISO and .293 on-base percentage away from Coors this season.
SYSTEM PICK FOR MAY 21
OAK-COL NRFI -121
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
