Buffalo entered this season as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Then it went out and pummeled each of the first four opponents, scoring at least 30 points in every contest. Last week, though, the offense could only muster 20 points while Drake Maye led the Patriots to an upset. Despite that loss, DraftKings Sportsbook still has the Bills as favorites to win it all at +475.
Atlanta is not considered a threat to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but it is building something. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is 25 years old, running back Bijan Robinson is 23 years old, tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. is 25 years old and wide receiver Drake London is 24 years old. This past draft, the Falcons utilized their first round picks on linebacker Jalon Walker and defensive end James Pearce Jr.
The inconsistency has been maddening, but it’s not unexpected with so much youth. After a close loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1, Atlanta easily handled Minnesota in Week 2, only to get skunked and lose by 30 points to Carolina. The Falcons rebound and put up 34 points against Washington to notch the seven-point win in Week 4. Shrug.
Which team will show up at home on Monday night?
The Bills are a juggernaught on offense. No surprise with that Josh Allen guy under center. Buffalo is first in EPA per dropback and third in EPA per carry. Atlanta has been good against the pass, posting the seventh-best EPA per dropback and allowing a 57.7% completion percentage, tied for the lowest mark in the league with Denver. The 46.8% blitz rate is the best in the NFL and Atlanta is the only team over 40%. Despite that, the unit has mustered only 10 sacks.
The run defense has been an issue for Atlanta, giving up 4.6 yards per carry and the seventh-highest EPA per carry. Atlanta has only faced 15 rushes by quarterbacks this season. They could get a heavy dose of Allen and James Cook toting the rock in this one.
Defensively, Buffalo is similar to Atlanta in that the pass defense is better than the run defense. The Bills are 10th in EPA per dropback and 21st in EPA per carry. Unlike Atlanta, though, Buffalo only blitzes 26.6% of the time but has racked up 13 sacks.
Atlanta has the personnel to be explosive in both the run and pass games, but as mentioned earlier, both units have been inconsistent while flashing the salivating upside. Through five games, Atlanta is 21st in EPA per dropback and 18th in EPA per carry.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BUF -4.5 over ATL with the total at 49.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (BUF @ ATL)
Captain’s Picks
James Cook ($15,300 CP): In a vacuum, I prefer Josh Allen because he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and quite possibly in the NFL. But he’s the most expensive player on the slate and I like the rosters with a cheaper captain. In the first four games of the season, Cook put up over 20 FPTS in each contest, so it’s not like he’s a chump. He had scored a touchdown in all of those games while contributing in the passing game. Last week, he only put up 4.9 FPTS with zero touchdowns or receptions. The recency bias could depress the ownership a bit. The weakness of the Atlanta defense is on the ground and it’s not out of the question that he puts up the most FPTS on the night.
UTIL Plays
Josh Allen ($11,400): Allen is just too good and too involved to fade. He does it through the air. He does it on the ground. Allen has a season-high of 41.8 FPTS and a low of 11.8 FPTS, but the Bills had that game in hand so Allen wasn’t needed that much. He still rushed for 59 yards, though. With the Falcons at home in a primetime game, I expect some fight from them.
Tyler Allgeier ($4,400): Allgeier is only playing around 30% of the snaps and has finished with 1.4 and 2.4 FPTS. In the other two contests, though, he had 11.1 and 15 FPTS, scoring a touchdown in each. Last week, in a close competitive game, Allgeier rushed 16 times for 51 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo is susceptible to the run and the Falcons will likely want to ground and pound as much as they can.
Keon Coleman ($7,800): There is no target hog for the Bills as Coleman and Khalil Shakir are tied with 29 targets while Dalton Kincaid is right behind at 24. But Coleman is 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds with an aDOT of 11.3 yards. I like him to get an opportunity or two to Moss a defender.
Fades
Drake London ($9,200): London put up 28 FPTS last week on eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown, his first of the season. In the prior three games, London finished with 10.5, 6.9 and 13.5 FPTS, failing to exceed 55 yards in any of those contests. Buffalo is ninth in EPA per dropback and I think they can keep London relatively in check. At the fourth-highest price on the slate, the risk/reward doesn’t seem favorable.
THE OUTCOME
Points will likely be scored in this one, but I think they are methodical scores instead of a wild, back-and-forth affair. With the Falcons at home, I like them to keep it close, but in the end, Buffalo is too talented and should be uber-focused after being dealt its first loss of the season last week.
Final Score: Bills 30, Falcons 24
