Week 6 of the NFL season will conclude with another Monday Night Football doubleheader. In the first matchup on the slate, the Atlanta Falcons will host the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are off to a 4-1 start to the season and have climbed to the Super Bowl favorite at +475 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Josh Allen has also already leaped to the +150 favorite to win MVP for the second consecutive season. Their four wins have come over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, and Saints, but Buffalo is looking to bounce back from its first loss last week at the hands of New England.
It has been an up-and-down start to the season for Atlanta, entering Week 6 with a 2-2 record and coming off its bye week. The Falcons have defeated the Commanders and Vikings but fallen short against the Panthers and Buccaneers.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Bills enter as 4.5-point favorites, and hold -205 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons hold +170 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at O/U 49.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup.
Bills at Falcons Best Prop Bets
Bijan Robinson Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The list of running backs better than Bijan Robinson continues to get smaller. Through his first four games, he has rushed the ball 64 times for 314 yards and added 18 receptions for 270 yards and two total touchdowns. After being limited to just 24 rushing yards in the season opener, Robinson has produced rushing totals of 143, 72, and 75 yards.
He will now face off with a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run. They rank 28th in rushing yards allowed, 29th in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 30th in net yards per rush attempt. The advanced analytics are also not friendly, either as the team has produced the third-worst DVOA and fourth-worst EPA per play.
Atlanta is not shy to allow Michael Penix Jr. to throw the ball at a high rate, but the offense is at its best when Bijan Robinson is rolling. Expect the Falcons to be well aware of these poor rushing metrics and make an effort to give the Pro Bowl running back the ball. It will be a challenge to match the 169 rushing yards and two touchdowns that Derrick Henry produced against Buffalo in the season opener, but expect Robinson to make his impact felt in this game and rush for over 75.5 rushing yards for the 17th time in his young NFL career.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128)
Getting -128 odds for Josh Allen to throw for over 1.5 passing touchdowns is better value than is typically the case for the MVP favorite. This is largely due to the success of the Falcons’ defense, but I remain a bit skeptical. Through their first four games, they have allowed just five total passing touchdowns, and they have allowed the fewest passing yards in the league. But the list of quarterbacks they have faced in their past three games is J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota.
Josh Allen is a notable tier above any of these quarterback options and has thrown for over 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of the five games this season. The Falcons faced Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in the opening week, with Mayfield throwing for three touchdowns in this matchup. Expect Allen to be in line for this level of production at the quarterback position.
Allen is averaging 243.4 passing yards per game and 42.4 rushing yards with nine passing touchdowns and three rushing scores already this year. The Bills have scored 20+ points in every game and 30+ in their first four games. Count on Allen being responsible for driving this scoring and tallying at least two touchdowns through the air.
Michael Penix Jr. to Record 250+ Passing Yards (+169)
Through the opening four games, Penix Jr. has completed 62.4% of his pass attempts for 918 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He is averaging 229.5 passing yards per game, but has produced passing totals of 298, 135, 172, and 313. There have been some significant ups and downs, but the arm talent is clear.
Looking at this matchup, Buffalo also grades well against the pass, largely due to some favorable quarterback matchups. It ranks second in the league in passing yards allowed, ninth in passing touchdowns allowed, and sixth in net yards per pass attempt. However, after opening up the season against Lamar Jackson, they have faced Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, and Drake Maye. During last week’s loss, Maye lit up the Bills for 273 passing yards.
Buffalo has a high-powered offense that ranks third in the league with an average of 30.6 points per game. Atlanta is going to need to move the ball and put up points if they are to have a chance in this game. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite for a reason, and playing from behind will only increase the need for Penix Jr. to throw the football. He has attempted 36+ pass attempts in both losses this year, including as many as 42 in the opening week loss. His standard passing prop line is set at 224.5 passing yards for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. I am pushing the prop line up to 250+ yards at +169 odds. Count on there being plenty of passing volume and for Penix to throw for 250+ yards for the third time this season.
