Since superstar quarterback Joe Burrow went down with turf toe in Week 2, the Cincinnati Bengals have gone from bad to worse. In three games with Jake Browning at the helm, Cincinnati is 0-3 and Browning has played poorly enough that the team traded for Joe Flacco, who was benched by the Cleveland Browns in favor of Dillon Gabriel. Then, on Friday, the Bengals reported the only news that could have possibly made their season worse: star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase missed practice with an illness and will be listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest against the Green Bay Packers.
Nobody will benefit if Chase sits, except for, possibly, his receiving partner Tee Higgins. This season, Higgins is off to a slow start, catching just 13 of his 27 targets for 158 yards and two scores. His 48.1% catch percentage ranks 19th-to-last among 177 qualified pass-catchers, and his 44.4% success rate is unimpressive as well. He’s been a drain for fantasy managers this season, ranking as just WR48 by DraftKings’ scoring system, and he’s yet to score more than 15 FPTS in a game. Higgins absolutely needs a big performance to remind fans of just what he’s capable of, and if Chase sits, Week 6 could be the opportunity.
Higgins’ struggles this season haven’t entirely been his fault. He hasn’t dropped a pass yet, and he’s still been one of the league’s best at racking up yards after the catch, getting 1.1 more yards per reception after the catch than expected, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. That figure ranks a solid 22nd among all qualified receivers, although it lags behind Chase’s. He’s still a great contested-catch threat.
The main issue is that he ranks third-to-last in separation, and while he has struggled with that throughout his entire career, his 1.7-yard average lags far behind his marks in 2024 (2.2), 2023 (2.3), 2022 (2.5), 2021 (2.3), and 2020 (2.5). That’s unlikely to change if Chase sits, as he’ll instead spend more time shadowed by Green Bay’s best cornerback. He’s been able to get away with it because Burrow ranked third in completion percentage over expectation last season, but Flacco ranks 11th-to-last in that stat. Forcing an inaccurate ball to a tightly-covered Higgins is a recipe for an interception, not for fantasy success.
To be fair, the last time Chase missed a game — in Week 16 of the 2023 season — Higgins had a five-catch, 140-yard, one score performance with Browning at quarterback that was his best game of that season. However, that game came against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who allowed the 16th-most passing yards in the league and finished the season 17th by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. It also wasn’t his season high in targets; most of his damage in that game came via an 80-yard catch-and-run, and explosive plays invariably have a high degree of randomness.
This Packers defense ranks third in coverage grades so far while allowing the 11th-fewest yards per game, and two-time All-Pro honoree Keisean Nixon has allowed just an 87.6 passer rating on 25 targets as the nearest defender. Green Bay has allowed a league-low six 20-plus-yard catches, so Higgins, whose 13.3-yard average depth of target is a career high, won’t be effective as a deep threat. Even if Chase sits, he isn’t worth starting, especially with so much uncertainty at quarterback.
