The Penn State Nittany Lions are officially scrambling. After getting off to a dominant 3-0 start to the season, in which they looked like legitimate National Championship threats, they have dropped back-to-back games in increasingly embarrassing fashion. Last week’s loss to UCLA was a new low and arguably the most embarrassing loss of the James Franklin era. They have fallen out of the AP Top 25 entirely as a result. Penn State will now attempt to pick itself up for a matchup against the Northwestern Wildcats this weekend.
These programs have faced off 21 times in their history. Penn State has come out victorious in 16 of these matchups, including three straight entering this year. Northwestern’s most recent victory over Penn State came in 2015.
Looking at the odds for this week, Penn State enters as a 21.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -1600 odds on the moneyline. Northwestern holds +900 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 48.5 points.
This article will include a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 7 matchup.
Northwestern at Penn State prediction, preview
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern enters with a 3-2 record so far on the season. Their pair of losses came against Tualne and Oregon, with their three victories coming over Western Illinois, UCLA, and UL Monroe. They have also gone 3-2 against the spread.
Quarterback Preston Stone has overcome some early turnover issues and settled in. Through the opening five games, he has completed 61.5% of his pass attempts for 918 yards, seven touchdowns, and six interceptions, with four of these picks coming in the opening week loss to Tulane. Stone has four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in the previous two wins over UCLA and UL Monroe. Griffin Wilde is the team’s leading wide receiver with 25 receptions for 375 yards and two touchdowns. Caleb Komolafe headlines the rushing attack with 344 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the season. Joseph Himon II, Dashun Reeder, and Cam Porter have each also added 130+ yards on the ground each and combined for two rushing scores.
Northwestern is averaging 23.6 points per game, which ranks 96th, and is producing 381.0 yards of total average offense. The Wildcats are allowing 311.6 yards of offense and 17.0 points per game against them, which ranks 26th. They have allowed just five passing and four rushing touchdowns this season, with them holding opponents to 14 points or fewer in all three wins. Turnovers have been an issue, with eight tallied on the year, but they are coming off back-to-back games without coughing the ball up. Northwestern has tallied nine sacks and forced just two turnovers itself.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State enters with a 3-2 record, but is 0-5 against the spread on the season. Their victories came against Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova before the sky came crashing down in recent weeks. The 30-24 loss to Oregon was palatable given that the Ducks are also a National Title threat and that the Nittany Lions showed some fight to scrap back into that game. But last week’s 42-37 loss to UCLA is unacceptable given that the Bruins had not even held a lead at any point this season before the matchup. Penn State entered this game as a 24.5-point favorite but was outclassed from start to finish with Nico Iamaleava carving up the Penn State defense for 294 total yards and five touchdowns with his arm and legs. They dropped out of the AP Top 25 completely and will be looking to rebound this week in this matchup.
Drew Allar has not quite put the pieces together despite being the highest-rated Penn State quarterback recruit in program history. He has completed 64.7% of his pass attempts for 963 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions while adding 147 yards on the ground. The Nittany Lions rely on their running game as the foundation of their offense, with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton as their two key players. Allen has rushed for 377 yards and six touchdowns this season, while Singleton has added 239 rushing yards and five scores. Kyron Ware-Hudson leads the team with 208 receiving yards, while Trebor Pena and Luke Reynolds have each pulled in 197 yards through the air this year.
Penn State is averaging 38.6 points per game, which ranks 20th in the country, and is producing 389.0 yards of total offense. They are averaging 175.4 rushing yards and 2.4 rushing touchdowns per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring just 17.8 points per game, which is the 30th-best rate, and producing 306.2 total yards of offense. They held opponents to 11 points or fewer in the first three games, but gave up 24+ in their back-to-back losses. The Nittany Lions have tallied 12 sacks and forced seven turnovers this season.
Northwestern at Penn State pick, best bet
Penn State is returning to Happy Valley for this matchup, but this isn’t necessarily a good thing based on the current pressure on this team. Frustrations have been loud for several years for James Franklin proving incapable of winning the big game. The loss to UCLA could end up being a wake-up call and the spark they needed, or this could be the moment where the walls fully cave in on the Franklin era.
With that in mind, I am backing the under for this game. Even under the best of circumstances, it has not been easy for Penn State to reliably put up points. They have scored 24+ points in each game, but it has been a grind. The Nittany Lions were held to 10 first-half points against Florida International, had just three points in the fourth quarter against Oregon, and trailed 27-7 at halftime against UCLA last week. Northwestern has a stingy defense that will make them work, and they fared better against both Oregon and UCLA than Penn State did.
Both these teams prefer to play with a ball-control style of offense with an emphasis on the running game. They each also crack the top 30 scoring defenses in the country. Expect both teams to be completely comfortable soaking up the clock and for each side to struggle to generate explosive plays. The 48.5 point total is too high for my liking based on their styles of play, and I expect this to be a bit of a snooze-fest of a game. Count on both teams struggling to score with their ground attacks and for the point total to fall below the 48.5 point line.
