Week 7 of the College Football season has already arrived, with plenty of surprising takeaways having already occurred. But the action continues on the field with the Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the Fighting Illini as one of the headline matchups on this week’s slate. Ohio State has climbed to the number one team in the country, while Illinois sits at 17th in the AP Poll following a strong start to the year for both teams.
These programs are very familiar with each other and have matched up 102 times in their history. Ohio State has gotten the upper hand in 68 of these games, with four ties notched over the years as well. They have not played since 2017, but Ohio State has won nine consecutive matchups leading into this year’s game.
Looking at the odds, Ohio State enters as 14-point favorites and holds -650 odds on winning on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Illinois holds +470 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 50.5 points for the matchup.
This article will give a preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 7 matchup.
Ohio State at Illinois prediction, preview
Ohio State preview
Ohio State enters with a perfect 5-0 record and is 4-0-1 against the spread. Their victories have come over Texas, Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, and Minnesota by a combined score of 187-25. The Buckeyes have not allowed more than nine points in a game this season while putting up 37.4 points per game offensively.
Julian Sayin has been one of the more positive surprises in college football this year. In his second season with the program and first as a starter, Sayin has completed an FBS-best 80.2% of his pass attempts for 1,313 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions thus far. He has climbed to the sixth-best odds of winning the Heisman Trophy at +1700 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
One of the names ahead of him is his top wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith, who holds the fourth-best odds at +900 to be crowned the Heisman Trophy winner. The future first-round pick has pulled in 35 receptions for 463 yards and six touchdowns this season. Carnell Tate is not far behind him with 24 receptions for 435 yards and four scores. Bo Jackson (no, not that one) is the team’s leading rusher with 48 carries for 360 yards and two touchdowns this year. CJ Donaldson leads the team with four rushing touchdowns and 193 rushing yards, while James Peoples has added 195 rushing yards of his own.
Ohio State ranks 24th in the country in scoring with its 37.4 points per game, and they are putting up 451.4 average yards of total offense. Their average of 5.0 points allowed per game is the best in the country, and they have held opponents to just 215.8 average yards of offense. Texas put up 336 total yards of offense against the Buckeyes, who are the only team to crack 250+ yards gained. Ohio State has already produced 14 sacks, 33 tackles for a loss, and five turnovers.
Illinois preview
The Fighting Illini are off to a 5-1 start to the season and sit at 17th in the AP Poll. They opened the season as the 12th-ranked team and peaked as the ninth-ranked team so far this season. Illinois opened the season with convincing victories over Western Illinois, Duke, and Western Michigan. They were then dismantled by Indiana and lost 63-10. To their credit, Illinois has bounced back with victories over USC and Purdue. This battle with Ohio State is another opportunity for a big-time victory and will be a noteworthy measuring stick matchup.
Luke Altmyer headlines the production at the quarterback spot. In his third season in the starting quarterback role, he is completing 73.6% of his pass attempts for 1,573 yards and 12 interceptions without throwing an interception yet. Altmyer has also added two scores on the ground. Hank Beatty is the team’s leading receiver with 32 receptions for 569 yards and two touchdowns. Collin Dixon has added 18 receptions for 311 yards and two scores, while Justin Bowick leads the team with four receiving touchdowns. The running game is led by Ca’Lil Valentine and Kaden Feagin. Each player has rushed for 300+ yards individually and combined for eight rushing scores. Aidan Laughery has also added 131 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Illinois is averaging 37.0 points per game, which ranks 27th in the country, and is putting up 397.8 yards of total offense. They are allowing an average of 24.0 points per game against them and 387.5 yards of total offense. These numbers are largely distorted due to the 63 points and 579 total yards of offense Indiana hung on them, but are still worth noting. USC scored 32 points and Purdue put up 27 in their past two games. Illinois has tallied 15 sacks and 10 turnovers already this year.
Ohio State at Illinois pick, best bet
Ohio State has looked the part of a number one team in college football, but this will be their first true test. The opening week victory over Texas drew plenty of praise, but the win does not look quite as impressive following the Longhorns’ underwhelming start, in which they have slipped out of the AP Top 25 altogether. This is their lone ranked win so far this year. There is no doubt that they are a good football team, but all the Buckeyes’ metrics feel a bit overly impressive due to the level of competition they have faced.
Illinois got its wake-up call in the loss to Indiana, and the response has been solid. Luke Altmyer is coming off back-to-back games with 328+ passing yards and four total scores. He has looked sharp and will not blink at this Ohio State defense, even with them being the best he has faced to this point. As long as the Fighting Illini offensive line can hang in there long enough, he can make the plays. Altmyer has played mistake-free football to this point and will need to do the same in this matchup.
Illinois will have the home crowd behind it and will need to score early to make a statement. Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first half yet this year, but this also will be the best offense they have faced to this point. This would be a monstrous upset, but I like the Fighting Illini’s chances of keeping it within a two-touchdown margin. Ohio State’s defense is its biggest strength, and if Illinois can put up points at a reliable rate, the Buckeyes will struggle to match. They put up just 14 points against Texas and 24 against Washington, with the 70 points they put up against Grambling State doing some heavy lifting in their scoring average. Expect Illinois to show enough of an offensive pulse that Ohio State cannot fully put them away, and for this matchup to finish within the notable 14-point margin.
