The Sam Houston Bearkats will host the Jacksonville State Gamecocks as part of the midweek College Football slate in a Conference USA matchup. Neither of these teams has gotten off to their desired starts this season. Sam Houston has dropped all five of their games by 17 points or greater, while Jacksonville State is 2-3 to start the year.
This will be the 14th matchup between these two programs in their history. Sam Houston has come out victorious in seven of these matchups while Jacksonville State has won six times thus far.
Jacksonville State enters as a seven-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -290 odds on the Moneyline. Sam Houston holds +235 of getting the outright victory, and the game total is set at 54.5 points.
This article will give a preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 7 matchup.
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston prediction, preview
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
The Gamecocks hold a 2-3 record on the season, with their victories coming over Liberty and Murray State to this point. Their losses came against UCF, Georgia Southern, and Southern Missouri. Jacksonville State is both 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread so far this season, with the over cashing in three of the games.
Gavin Wimsatt got first dibs at the starting quarterback role and had some struggles. Through the first five games, he has completed 55.8% of his pass attempts for 576 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Wimsatt has also added 238 rushing yards on the ground and four scores with his legs. After throwing for just 19 yards and losing a fumble in the first quarter of last week’s matchup with Southern Miss, head coach Charles Kelly made a quarterback change and plugged Caden Creel in with the first team. Creel completed nine of his 17 pass attempts for 109 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and rushed for 161 yards and a touchdown across the final three quarters. Jacksonville State has listed Gavin Wimsatt or Caden Creel as QB1 on the depth chart and looks to be keeping things close to the vest leading up to this matchup. Creel’s big-play ability with his legs certainly added another layer to the Gamecocks’ attack, but there are pros and cons to the abilities of both candidates.
Outside of the uneasy quarterback play, running back Cam Cook has been the biggest star in the offense. He has rushed for a Conference USA-best 614 yards already this season while adding 122 receiving yards through the air with five touchdowns to his name. His 122.8 rushing yards per game are the foundation of Jacksonville State’s attack. Brock Rechsteiner is the team’s leading wide receiver with 215 yards and three receiving touchdowns on the year.
Overall, Jacksonville State is averaging 29.6 points per game, 64th in the country, and is producing 405.8 yards of total offense. They are eighth in the country in rushing yards at 261.4 per game, but 127th in passing with just 144.4 yards on average through the air. Defensively, they are giving up 26.8 points per game and 395.2 yards of total offense. They have forced just three turnovers on the year and registered 10 total sacks.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Not only does Sam Houston enter with an 0-5 overall record, but they have failed to even cover the spread in any of these games. The losses came at the hands of Western Kentucky, UNLV, Hawai’i, Texas, and New Mexico State. The Bearkats were held scoreless against Texas in the 55-0 loss and have not put more than 24 points on the board in a game yet this year.
Hunter Watson has primarily served as the starting quarterback to this point. He has completed 58.6% of his passing attempts for 618 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, and leads the team with 156 rushing yards and a pair of scores on the ground. Mabrey Mettauer has also spent time in three games this year and completed 69.4% of his pass attempts for 199 yards, one touchdown, and two picks while playing mostly in garbage time. The expectation is that Watson will remain the starter despite the early turbulence. Alton McCaskill and Landon Brown have each added 100+ yards on the ground this season, with two combined touchdowns. Elijah Green is the team’s leading wide receiver on the season with 133 yards and one score.
The Bearkats have been statistically outclassed on both sides of the ball to this point. They are producing just 15.0 points per game, which ranks 132nd out of the 136 qualifying teams, and just 275.6 yards of offense per game. Sam Houston is allowing 456.8 yards of offense and 41.6 points per game, which ranks 135th in the country. They are giving up touchdowns on 78% of opponents’ trips to the red zone and have forced just four turnovers all season.
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston pick, best bet
There seems to be a surprising amount of optimism surrounding Sam Houston given the product that has been put on the field to this point. I am sifting through this and backing Jacksonville State to continue adding to the nightmare season for the Bearkats.
Sam Houston will need to sell out to stop the run against Jacksonville State, but they are allowing 2.4 touchdowns through the air already. Jacksonville State will not be confused with some of the teams that have dismantled Sam Houston to this point, but the plays are there to be made against this defense, and this should be the get-right spot they have been waiting for.
Jacksonville State has won each of its last six games in October and covered the spread in all of these. They have also won the first half of five of their last six games against conference opponents. If Sam Houston gets behind in this matchup, the pathway to a comeback victory feels improbable at best. Sam Houston has also really struggled in these conference battles, failing to cover the spread in seven of these last eight matchups.
Expect the quarterback competition to bring out the best in this Jacksonville State team, and for the added rest coming off the bye week to be an advantage. They put up 34+ points in both of their victories against tougher defenses than Sam Houston will offer. Count on Jacksonville State pushing the scoring to a level that Sam Houston cannot match and covering the seven-point spread in the process. Expect things to get worse before they get better for this Bearkats program and for Jacksonville State to be the latest
