The Detroit Tigers took a 1-0 series lead against the Mariners with a 3-2 win in an 11-inning thriller last night. Zach McKinstry’s single to center was the game-winner in the top of the 11th, and Keider Montero shut the door in the bottom half. Game 2 will remain in Seattle with Tarik Skubal and Luis Castillo taking the mound for their respective teams.
The Tigers enter as -156 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Mariners are +128. The game total is set at just 5.5 — an indication of the strong pitching matchup.
Tigers vs. Mariners preview
The Seattle Mariners went 90-72 in the regular season and won the AL West and the No. 2 in the American League. They are coming off the opening round bye and looking to bounce back from the Game 1 loss. Seattle held a 1-0 lead in the fourth inning on a Julio Rodriguez home run, but was unable to keep it.
Castillo will get the start for the Mariners. The three-time All-Star enters with an 11-8 record, a 3.54 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP. He threw 180.2 innings this season and struck out 162 while allowing 168 hits. This will be the fourth postseason start of his career, and he has a career 1.83 ERA in the playoffs. He made two starts for the Mariners in the 2022 playoffs and pitched 14.2 innings while giving up just three earned runs and striking out 12.
The Detroit Tigers went 87-75 in the regular season, earning the last Wild Card spot in the American League. The Tigers burned throigh eight pitchers in yesterday’s matchup, so they could use a strong starting pitching performance in this matchup.
Skubal is the perfect guy to do it. The defending Cy Young winner, and likely soon to be two-time winner, led the American League with a 2.21 ERA and 6.6 WAR this season. He posted a 13-6 record and struck out 241 hitters while allowing just 141 hits in 195.1 innings pitched. This will be the fifth start of Skubal’s postseason career, during which he has a 2.03 ERA. This includes his start in the Wild Card round, in which he finished with one earned run, three hits and 14 strikeouts in 7.2 innings.
Tigers vs. Mariners pick, best bet
While the Mariners have had success against Skubal this year, they’re still in for a difficult matchup tonight. Seattle has the ninth-highest whiff rate against left-handed changeups this season. It also ranks 25th in strikeouts per game, and Skubal has been at his best when the bright postseason lights are on him.
On the other side of the matchup, Castillo has hit a bit of a wall this season. His strikeout rate dipped by over six percentage points compared to last year, and he is allowing contact at an alarming rate. Castillo posted a 6.66 ERA in August and allowed eight home runs, but did not post more than a 3.97 ERA in any other month. He has posted a 3.75 ERA through two starts against the Tigers this year, with 11 hits and a home run allowed in 45 at-bats. Castillo allowed five total runs in his two appearances. Seattle typically has a strong bullpen, but it burned through Andrés Muñoz, Carlos Vargas, Matt Brash and Caleb Ferguson in yesterday’s game.
While the late-season collapse was concerning, it may have been the wake-up call the Tigers needed. Momentum is on their side, and they have their ace on the mound. Seattle’s offense looked fairly lifeless in the series opener, and things will not be any easier against Skubal.
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-156)
Bonus Bet: Tarik Skubal to Record 10+ Strikeouts (+107)
Ride Subal until the wheels come off. This should be the game plan for the Tigers and baseball bettors alike. The left-hander trailed only Garrett Crochet for the most strikeouts in MLB this regular season. He posted 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and will now face a Mariners team that has struck out at the sixth-highest rate this season.
Skubal carved up the Guardians for 14 strikeouts less than a week ago and has tallied at least 10 strikeouts in 10 starts this season. With the wear-and-tear on the Tigers’ bullpen in mind, expect Skubal to have a long leash.
