It is a loaded day of football across the Week 5 NFL slate. The Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots in the Sunday Night Football matchup to complete more than 12 hours of consecutive NFL football.
Buffalo has made an early case for looking like the best team in football. They join the Philadelphia Eagles as the only 4-0 team in the NFL and have had more convincing performances compared to the defending champions. Josh Allen has climbed to the MVP favorite at +100 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite for this season at +380 odds.
New England sits at 2-2 on the season, with their ups and downs on the field mirroring the record. They have suffered losses to the Raiders and Steelers while picking up victories over the Panthers and Dolphins.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Bills enter as 8.5-point favorites and hold -440 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots hold +340 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 49.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Patriots at Bills Best Prop Bets
TreVeyon Henderson Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Patriots’ backfield has underwhelmed to start the season. Through the opening four weeks, New England ranks 25th in total rushing yards, 24th in net yards per rush attempt, and has just 405 total yards on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson is currently the team’s leading rusher with just 125 yards individually.
The biggest reason for optimism is the signs of rookie TreVeyon Henderson’s role beginning to emerge in the offense. The Ohio State product was drafted with the 38th overall pick in last year’s draft. So far this season, Henderson has tallied just 26 rushing attempts for 97 yards and one touchdown. However, across the first two weeks, he averaged a 33.5% offensive snap share and averaged four rush attempts per game. He has seen 38.3% of the offensive snaps in the past two weeks and is averaging nine rush attempts per game in these matchups.
Henderson will look to build off this against a Bills defense that has given up the second-most rushing yards so far this season. Opponents are ripping off explosive runs of 10 or more yards in 23.9% of their rushing attempts, which is the worst mark in the league. As long as the opportunities are there, the pathway to production is clear for Henderson. He can rush for over 26.5 yards in just one attempt if the right chance aligns, and he has cleared this total in three of the four games, even with the limited opportunities. Expect his role in the offense to continue to grow, and for the rookie to have a chance at his best rushing total of the season in this rivalry matchup.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-120)
Josh Allen has been nothing short of stellar to start the season. The MVP favorite is posting a 70.2% completion percentage and has thrown for 964 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception while adding 159 rushing yards and three scores with his legs. He is a true dual-threat quarterback, with his 6-foot-5 frame making him a weapon around the goal line.
Through the 114 starts in his career, Allen has tallied 70 rushing scores. This rate has grown of late, with him tallying 28 touchdowns on the ground over the last two seasons. Allen has five rushing touchdowns against the Patriots in his career, including finding the end zone in both matchups in 2023.
New England has not faced a true dual-threat quarterback this season, with none of Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, nor Bryce Young being a threat with their legs. Allen has had at least four rushing attempts in every game this season, including 14 in Week 1. Expect the Bills to use his wide frame and for quarterback draws to remain a staple of the playbook. Look for him to reach the end zone on the ground for the fourth time this season and continue adding to his MVP resume.
Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Through the opening four games of the season, Dalton Kincaid has pulled in 14 receptions for 179 yards and three touchdowns. He has played his way back into the conversation for one of the better tight ends in sports and is in line to add to this tonight. New England is allowing an average of 63 yards to the tight end position this season, including Brock Bowers recording over 100 yards against them.
Kincaid will not be confused with Bowers, but the Bills’ offense is at its best when he is involved. He has tallied a reception for 18 yards or greater in every game this season and is averaging 44.8 total receiving yards per game. Kincaid has posted receiving totals of 28, 67, 37, and 48.
Expect the effort to get Kincaid the football to continue, especially as the wide receiver production remains a bit in flux. No Bills pass-catcher has more than 17 receptions individually, with Kincaid right in the mix for being the leading receiver in each notable category, including leading the team in touchdown receptions. Count on him continuing to hold up his end of the bargain in terms of offensive production and record over 32.5 yards through the air for the fourth time already this season.
