On Sunday afternoon, an inter-conference showdown takes center stage in the NFL Week 5 witching hour. The Eagles (4-0) remain unbeaten on the campaign despite a couple of scares, but even with one of the league’s best record, things clearly aren’t all sunny in Philadelphia as the offense is yet to hit its stride under new coordinator Kevin Patullo. On the visitor’s sideline of Lincoln Financial Field, the Denver Broncos (2-2) stand with a pretty similar conundrum as an elite defense makes up for another sputtering offense with quarterback Bo Nix fighting through his sophomore slump. This contest shapes up as perhaps the most intriguing matchup of this week’s slate, so settle in with some snacks on the couch and get the betting card ready for a close one.
Get ready for this Week 5 matchup with an Eagles vs. Broncos prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Eagles vs. Broncos prediction, preview
Philadelphia Eagles
Don’t be distracted by the mirage of the Eagles’ perfect 4-0 record — this team has a few problems to iron out over the coming weeks. Wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers are quite the track record for the Birds, but none of those have been decided by more than a touchdown. It’s been far from a dominant run as seen last season, a trend which stems from multiple factors. On one hand, Patullo’s play-calling appears largely uninspired with a very run-heavy attack and little creativity in the passing game to punish defenses which send an extra defender into the box. Per Diana Russini of the Athletic, the usage has created some frustrations for wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. A decline in trench play on both side of the ball is the other problem as the offensive line doesn’t quite look like the top-tier unit of years past, and the defense has now shifted its identity to center more around the secondary rather than the old wave-after-wave approach seen in the pass rush over the last few seasons.
That’s not to say that Philly doesn’t have a great football team. The Eagles are still quite good and have gotten the job done over the first four weeks of the campaign with 27 points per contest, a 41.82% third-down conversion rate, and a staggering 100% red-zone scoring percentage. Each of those marks fall top-10 in the NFL and the final stat obviously paces the entire league, but there are some concerns for the offense. That red-zone scoring rate isn’t a sticky metric and will absolutely regress, even with a cheat-code play like the Tush Push in the back pocket. Philadelphia actually struggles to move the ball with just 251.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play — those numbers both slot in 30th of 32 franchises. The team’s rushing efficiency is also down at 3.5 YPC (29th), and the Eagles throw the ball at the league’s lowest rate with just 138 passing yards per contest (31st). With a predictable attack which doesn’t challenge opponents downfield with Brown and Smith as in the past, it’s only a matter of time before the points slow down as well.
Defensively, this unit no longer ranks among the NFL’s most feared groups. Philadelphia allows 22 points and 333.3 yards per contest, the 15th and 22nd-best marks, and that middle-of-the-pack status bleeds over into some other areas as well. The Eagles are 18th in opponent yards per play, 14th in opponent third-down conversion rate, 21st in average opponent rushing yards allowed and 15th in average opponent passing yards allowed. As mentioned earlier, the front seven no longer looks like a sack machine as it did a couple of years ago with just five sacks in four games (30th) and a 3.52% sack rate (28th). The defense’s 1.3 takeaways per contest rank 10th, but this is far from the squad that sparked terror into opponents in recent memory.
Denver Broncos
Now onto the visiting Broncos. The 2-2 record doesn’t look all that great to start the campaign, especially after this team made it into the 2024 NFL Playoffs after Nix’s emergence as a legitimate young star down the stretch last season. Expectations for team growth in his second year under center were lofty, even more so with strong offseason additions such as halfbacks J.K Dobbins and RJ Harvey, tight end Evan Engram, linebacker Dre Dreenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and cornerback Jahdae Barron. The defensive moves have clearly worked out well and helped turn an already great unit into one of the NFL’s most elite, but the offensive side needs some more time to tune things up before shifting into high gear. Realistically though, this team could probably be 4-0 if just a couple of plays went their way — wins over the Titans and Bengals came easily, but losses to the Chargers and Colts were ultimately decided by just four combined points.
The basis for a very successful offense remains in place for Denver. Averages of 24 points and 354.5 yards per game come in at 16th and ninth, and the team’s 5.6 yards per play also sits just inside the top 10. The third-down conversion percentage of 39.22% could use a little work but ranks a respectable 16th, and the Broncos also score on 66.67% of red-zone opportunities, eighth-best. The run game appears quite strong with Dobbins’ 323 yards (fifth among all halfbacks) and three touchdowns, and the rushing attack does sit top-10 in most stat categories thanks in no small part to one of the league’s best offensive lines. Nix’s play is where things get a little more sketchy since Denver’s passing game hasn’t yet found its form. The second-year signal-caller has completed 65.7% of his passes for 861 yards and seven touchdowns, but he’s thrown four picks, his aDOT ranks 40th, and he’s posted seven turnover-worthy plays. Courtland Sutton looks awesome as he did last season, but Engram’s missed time due to injury and hasn’t lived up to the reputation of his signing as age may begin to take its toll. With that said, there’s work to be done.
The Broncos are unquestionably elite on the other side, though. The defense allows just 16.8 points and 285.3 yards per contest, second and eighth-best, and they also post top-10 marks in opponent yards per play as well as third and fourth-down conversion rate. Notably, Denver allows opponents to score just 25% of the time in the red zone, the best mark in football, so that’s something to keep an eye on against the league’s best red-zone offense. The Broncos also fall 11th in opponent rushing yards per game and eighth in opponent passing yards per contest. The front seven plays fantastic ball with an NFL-best 15 sacks as well as a 10.07% sack percentage (second-best), largely thanks to a DPOY-caliber start for Nik Bonitto with his five sacks and 21 pressures. As a whole, the defense averages one takeaway per outing as well.
Eagles vs. Broncos pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Eagles enter as -4.5 home favorites with -225 odds on the Moneyline. The Commanders are listed at +185 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 43.5 combined points.
In my opinion, those odds don’t properly reflect the talent between these two teams. Sure, the Eagles have more true star power on offense than their opponent, but these depth charts are probably much closer than most fans may assume from their own knowledge of team reputation. Both are well-built rosters and the gap between the two remains rather small based on the early season results to this point.
With Philadelphia’s offense largely struggling to move the ball, the Denver defense poses a significant threat. Not that Jalen Hurts was going to throw the ball a ton to begin with, at least as Patullo probably scripted it out, but All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II practically turns his assignment into dust and will take away whichever of Brown or Smith he draws in coverage. Add the remainder of a strong secondary to the equation and suddenly the Eagles could have a very difficult time throwing the ball if they do fall behind early, which remains a distinct possibility. Plus, the offensive line has its share of issues (including whatever’s going on with Lane Johnson subbing into and out of games) and now faces a formidable pass rush. Philly’s own defense doesn’t truly excel anywhere right now despite the fact that we know they’re a quality unit, and while its own secondary could give Nix fits, the Eagles aren’t exactly a run-stuffing defense. They’re allowing 126 rushing yards with an average of 4.8 YPC, so with this excellent Broncos offensive line, Dobbins and Harvey may actually have some room to work in the trenches. Denver can slow the pace of play just as their opponents like to do, so this could become a grinding affair of sorts.
Look at it this way. The Eagles have a smoke-and-mirrors offense that hasn’t yet proven an ability to dominate opponents under the new play-caller. Their defense is good, but not great. On the flip side, the Broncos have possibly the NFL’s best defense and don’t prove an easy matchup on that side of things, and the offense can both score and move the ball despite inconsistent play from Nix. As long as he can take care of the football and not cough up an ugly turnover or two, Denver should keep this game close and possibly even emerge with a win in a hostile environment. Take the spread or Moneyline depending on risk tolerance, but expect a hard-fought war of attrition between these playoff-caliber sides.
