Snugly back in the Five Lists of Five captain’s chair after a week off; many thanks to fellow fantasy sicko Keagan Smith for nurturing my child in Week 4, to the point where he even tossed you some bonus dynasty content. What a guy! And, honestly, what a devastating week it was. We waved solemn farewells to Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill. We said ta-ta for now to Lamar Jackson. A.J. Brown tweeted a cryptic passage from his little notebook of insights. The Bengals look lost, and it’s hard to know what to do with Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown. Woody Marks is, all the sudden, cautiously an RB2. Alright then, & all to say: let’s get back a’hammering, here, and mine ourselves some stashes, dart throws, breakouts, and, probably most importantly, as always, running back sleepers for fantasy football Week 5.
The refrain remains the same—All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some. And I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The I-ain’t-reading-all-that-but-good-luck folk. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, ~250 words per player.
Below: Top five smash starts for fantasy football Week 5. Must-starters based on matchup and sky-high ceilings.
Here are the other offerings from my 2025 Fantasy Football Five Lists of Five: Week 5 edition:
- Top five breakout wide receivers for 2025 fantasy football Week 5
- Top five breakout running backs for Week 5 of 2025 fantasy football
- Top five WR/CB matchups to target for Week 5 fantasy football
- Top five players to stash for Week 5 of 2025 fantasy football
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all of my fantasy football content—as well as plenty of NFL and College Football betting goodies—all season long.
Top five smash starts for Week 5 of 2025 fantasy football
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)
Alvin Kamara is aging like an oak cask, still pouring volume and efficiency into every drive. He has 72 touches through four weeks, 18 per game, but the Saints’ pace—fastest in the NFL at 27.4 seconds per snap—has elevated him to 21.8 opportunities per game when adjusted for tempo, third most among backs. His snap share, 67%, remains robust despite Kendre Miller flashing, and Kamara still dominates passing downs, running 92 routes (10th most among running backs).
The matchup against New York’s defense is an oasis. The Giants have allowed 6.1 yards per carry to backs, worst in the league, and they’ve given up 172 rushing yards per game, 30th overall. They have also surrendered the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position, plus an astonishing 3.02 yards before contact, the second-worst figure in football. Kamara has forced 11 missed tackles, caught 18 balls, and handled 13 red-zone touches already, ranking top-15 across the board. The Saints’ implied team total sits at 21.5, their highest this season, and they are favored for the first time in 2025.
Kamara has a long history of punishing bad run defenses indoors, averaging 22.4 PPR points per game across his last eight such matchups, and this Giants front has been especially porous against zone concepts, allowing 5.8 yards per zone carry. Kamara’s yards after contact per attempt (3.1) is better than Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson right now. Add his receiving role—he’s accounted for 23.5% of Saints’ RB targets—and you find the same Kamara who has finished as a top-12 back in three of four weeks. New York ranks 31st in defensive EPA, 32nd in run stop win rate, and 31st in tackling grade per PFF. The game will cruise with plays, and Kamara’s patience and contact balance will slice them open. He is RB16 in ranks, ahead of Kenneth Walker, but his projection pushes much higher.
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (vs. CIN)
David Montgomery epitomizes script leverage, and the numbers align perfectly for Week 5. The Lions sit as 10.5-point favorites, the second-largest spread of the slate, with an implied total of 30.5, the highest in football. When Detroit leads by seven or more, they call runs at a 62.4% rate, third highest, and Montgomery’s usage spikes. He has handled 78.1% of red-zone carries this year, fifth among running backs, and owns 10 carries inside the five, second only to Derrick Henry. His efficiency is quietly surging too: 5.7 yards per carry, 3.4 yards after contact, and 0.27 missed tackles forced per attempt, a figure in line with Tony Pollard.
Cincinnati offers little resistance. The Bengals have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, are surrendering 4.8 yards per carry, and have coughed up seven rushing touchdowns, tied for second most. They rank 29th in run stop win rate, 28th in defensive success rate, and 27th in adjusted line yards. The Lions themselves are pounding out 146 rushing yards per game at 4.9 yards per tote, third best, behind one of the NFL’s elite offensive lines.
Campbell’s coaching adds another layer: he has repeatedly leaned into emotional edges for his players, and Montgomery’s homecoming in Cincinnati, with dozens of family members in attendance, is exactly the type of situation where he will feature him on the goal line. Montgomery’s expected fantasy points sit at 16.8 per game, RB12 overall, and his actual production has already spiked with two top-15 weeks. The Lions’ pass rate over expected is third lowest, which locks him into volume when they are ahead, and no defense has faced more red-zone plays than Cincinnati. With Detroit favored heavily, Montgomery is set for 20+ touches, multi-TD upside, and the statistical bedrock of a must-start.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)
Chris Olave’s fantasy start to 2025 has been oddly muted, but the underlying metrics scream eruption, and Week 5 is the canvas. He has 42 targets through four weeks, 10.5 per game, fifth most among wideouts. His 37% team target share leads all receivers, and his expected fantasy points rank second only to Ja’Marr Chase. Yet the touchdowns have not come, with only one score on 42 looks, a 2.3% TD rate that sits at one-third of the league average for players with 30+ targets. The regression storm is brewing.
New York’s secondary is the perfect conductor. The Giants have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers, giving up 8.9 yards per target and a league-high 11 touchdowns to wideouts. Their coverage bust rate is the third worst, and opponents have posted a 70.6% neutral pass rate against them, highest in football. Indoors, with the Saints’ implied total at 21.5 (their season high), tempo and environment add fuel. Olave already owns 586 air yards, second in the NFL, and his average depth of target is 14.1 yards, a vertical profile that matches the Giants’ vulnerability. He ranks 10th in yards per route run (2.64) and has drawn six deep targets of 20+ yards, connecting on only two. That connection percentage, 33%, trails the league average of 45% and has room to climb. He is also averaging 2.56 yards per route against zone coverage, while the Giants are playing zone on 71% of snaps and allowing a 121.4 passer rating in those looks.
Olave’s one poor week came with only six targets, down from the 12.3 average across Weeks 1–3, but even then he found the end zone. He has been WR34 in actual scoring, but WR2 in expected. The dam will break. This matchup, indoors, against a defense bleeding efficiency, is the week to start him as a locked WR1.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (vs. CAR)
De’Von Achane moves into the spotlight with Tyreek Hill gone, and his volume is poised to expand in a system already tailored to speed. He has logged 21 touches last week, 20 the week before, and he is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, best in the league among qualified backs. His 0.41 missed tackles forced per attempt leads all starters, and he has ripped 11 runs of 10+ yards, most in the NFL. Miami’s red-zone efficiency sits at 80%, first in football, and Achane has already claimed 68.2% of the Dolphins’ RB red-zone carries. The passing role expands now: Achane has run 76 routes through four weeks, ranking 12th among backs, and Hill’s 28% target share leaves opportunities that must be redistributed. Carolina is not as soft as last year, but still exploitable.
The Panthers are giving up 122.4 rushing yards per game (25th), and they allow 2.7 yards after contact per attempt, fourth worst. They’ve already conceded 36 receptions to backs, second most, and 10.4 yards per reception in that phase. Achane’s yards per route run (2.14) is double the league average at the position, and he has caught 14 of 15 targets, with 131 receiving yards.
The Dolphins are favored by nine, with an implied total of 28.0, and Mike McDaniel’s scheme has Miami running pre-snap motion on 73% of plays, creating constant conflict for linebackers. Achane benefits the most: on motion runs, he averages 8.6 yards per attempt. His workload last week included 14 carries, five receptions, and two red-zone touches. He is RB8 in fantasy scoring, but the usage arrow points even higher without Hill’s presence. He is the ignition of Miami’s offense, with pace, vision, and acceleration that shred Carolina’s angles. The box score is ready to catch up to the tape. He is a must-start RB1.
Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. LV)
A quarterback must-start?! This might be a Five-by-Five first. But the matchup is too good, and Danny Dimes feels fringe enough to offer some love. A little variety never hurt anyone, now, did it?
Daniel Jones steps into Week 5 with the statistical profile of a quarterback whose production is outpacing perception. He has thrown for 8.9 yards per attempt through four weeks, a mark that ties him with Josh Allen for sixth in the league, and his 11.2 yards per attempt on play-action ranks fourth. He has layered 132 rushing yards on top of the passing efficiency, doing it with a designed-run rate of 14.5% that matches Allen’s 14.4%, an elite figure for any quarterback with full control of his offense. The touchdown rate, 3.3%, sits fifth worst in football, but every marker screams regression upward: Jones has 13 red-zone throws, tied for 10th in the league, and he has logged 11 rushing attempts inside the 20, third among quarterbacks.
The Raiders offer the perfect match. They are allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (24th), the eighth-highest EPA per dropback, and have already ceded 1.98 fantasy points per drive to quarterbacks, fourth worst. Their defense is the most extreme pass funnel in the league: first in EPA per rush allowed, 30th in EPA per pass. Opponents have thrown on 64.2% of neutral downs against Las Vegas, the fourth-highest rate. Jones’ skill set thrives in these environments, because he punishes nickel personnel with legs and turns one broken angle into 20 yards. The Colts’ implied total of 27.5, third highest this week, raises the floor.
He already sits 12th in adjusted completion percentage (77.2%) and ninth in explosive pass rate (14.1%). If Adonai Mitchell doesn’t fumble away a touchdown last week, Jones’ fantasy box score would look sharper, but the underlying efficiency shows the truth. He is QB7 in my model, ahead of Drake Maye, with legitimate top-five upside once variance swings his way.
