The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers played out the first tie of the season on Sunday Night Football, as 70 minutes of football resulted in 40 points for each team. It was another great day for the Cowboys’ passing offense: Dak Prescott racked up 319 yards and now leads the league with 1,119 through four weeks. Dallas didn’t miss CeeDee Lamb at all, as offseason acquisition George Pickens hauled in eight of his 11 targets for 134 yards and two scores, his third straight game scoring a touchdown. Lamb suffered an ankle injury in Week 3, but he’s already shed the boot and hasn’t officially been ruled out for Week 5 yet.
With the prospect of Lamb returning at some point within the next few weeks, is it worth it to sell Pickens now while his value is high? By standard fantasy scoring, he has been WR5 so far this season, having never previously ranked higher than WR23 despite being the top target with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s also never played in an offense quite as pass-friendly as this season’s Cowboys, which has called passes at the second-highest rate. None of his prior Steelers teams have ever ranked higher than 20th in that category, and Prescott is better than any of the quarterbacks he played with in Pittsburgh.
I’d hold on to Pickens even if Lamb returns soon. Though he received only four targets in the team’s Week 1 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, that can be attributed to the fact that it was his first game with the team and the first game in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, as well as to the Eagles’ elite secondary. Prescott targeted him nine times in Week 2, while Lamb received 11 targets and tight end Jake Ferguson received 12. Such is the life of playing with a gunslinger like Prescott: in 2023, his most recent full season, Lamb and Ferguson each received more than 100 targets, with second wideout Brandin Cooks being fantasy-viable with 54 catches, 657 yards, and eight scores of his own. Pickens is both a much more talented player than Cooks and has played in a greater percentage of snaps, even across the first two games, than Cooks did in 2023.
Plus, Dallas’ defense is so bad that Prescott will likely have to throw to keep up. Pro Football Focus has given the Cowboys just a 51.3 overall defensive grade, the second-lowest mark in football, and they also rank in the bottom five in rushing defense, pass rushing, and coverage. No team has allowed more passing yards. Only the Chicago Bears — who have six more interceptions than Dallas — have given up as many touchdowns through the air and only the Miami Dolphins have allowed a higher passer rating. Just two teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns, and only four teams have missed more tackles. The all-around disaster benefits nobody…except Prescott, Pickens and Lamb.
