Don’t look now, but it is already Week 6 of the college football season. The outlook was far more promising for the Clemson Tigers a few weeks ago, but they will look to get back on track in this week’s matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Neither of the teams holds exactly the outlook they hoped for at this stage of the year. With one-third of the season already in the books, it is getting late early in the 2025 season for both programs.
These teams have faced off 60 times in program history. Clemson has been victorious in 40 of these matchups, with one tie tallied as well. The Tigers have won six consecutive matchups leading into this game, with North Carolina’s last victory over Clemson coming in 2010.
Looking at the odds for this week, Clemson enters as a 14-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -600 odds on the Moneyline. North Carolina holds +440 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 46.5 points.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 6 matchup.
Clemson at North Carolina prediction, preview
Clemson Preview
After entering the season with legitimate National Championship aspirations and ranked fourth in the AP Poll, it is time to come to terms with the fact that Clemson just may not be very good. They enter this matchup with a 1-3 record and have suffered losses to LSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse. Their lone victory came in a 27-16 victory over Troy in which they failed to cover the 31.5-point spread and went down 16-0 in the second quarter before completing the comeback.
After opening the season as the third favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +950 odds, Cade Klubnik has slipped to a +25,000 longshot to win the prestigious award. He is posting a 60.1% completion percentage and has thrown for 996 passing yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions while adding 60 rushing yards and a score with his legs. Adam Randall leads the team in rushing with 57 carries for 338 yards and three touchdowns while adding 81 receiving yards and a score through the air. Bryant Wesco Jr. headlines the wide receiver production with 24 receptions for 389 yards and an ACC-best five receiving touchdowns. T.J. Moore and Tyler Brown are the two other pass-catchers to eclipse 100 yards on the year thus far.
Collectively, Clemson is averaging just 19.8 points per game, which ranks 116th in the country. They are producing 365.3 total yards of offense per game while turning the ball over 1.8 times per contest. On the defensive side of the ball, opponents are scoring 22.8 points and 362.0 total yards of offense per game.
North Carolina Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels did not enter with as lofty expectations, but had plenty of eyeballs on them in Bill Belichick’s first season as head coach. Through their opening four games, they hold a 2-2 record. TCU and UCF each got the better of North Carolina in their matchups, while the Tar Heels have produced victories over Charlotte and Richmond.
Both Gio Lopez and Max Johnson have spent some time at quarterback already this season. Lopez was the initial starter coming into the season and is posting a 62.7% completion percentage and has thrown for 427 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 69 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs. Johnson has seen action in two games this season, which were each of the losses. The LSU and Texas A&M transfer is more of a traditional pocket passer and has completed 20 of his 30 passes (66.7%) for 170 passing yards and two touchdowns without an interception thus far. Demon June headlines the rushing attack with 250 yards and a rushing touchdown, while Caleb Hood and Davion Gause have also reached paydirt with their legs. Jordan Shipp leads the team with 13 receptions for 193 yards and two scores, with Chris Culiver the only other member of the team to reach a triple-digit receiving tally.
North Carolina is averaging 21.0 points per game and just 263.5 total yards of offense. They are throwing for only 150.0 yards per contest and have not thrown for more than 172 yards in the air in a matchup yet this year. Some of this is because they want to have an identity as a rush-first football team, but the lack of consistent, competent quarterback play is noteworthy. Defensively, they are allowing 22.8 points per game and 344.5 total yards of offense.
Clemson at North Carolina pick, best bet
It is time to come to terms with the fact that this Clemson team is simply not what they were billed out to be. They are coming off a bye week, so they had a chance to collect themselves, but they have not had the look of a football team that should be 14-point favorites over anyone. On the other side, North Carolina has not inspired much confidence either.
While my lean is toward the Tar Heels covering the 14-point spread, I am backing the under of 46.5 points in this matchup. North Carolina is committed to keeping the ball on the ground and dominating the time of possession. Gio Lopez is banged up, and his status is uncertain heading into this week. Belichick has made it clear he will get the start if he is physically capable, but you could make an argument in either direction that this helps the outlook for the team.
Clemson has not eclipsed 27 points this season and did an impressive job limiting LSU to 17 points in the season opener. Syracuse dropped 34 points against them last week, which is the most they have allowed all year. North Carolina scored 41 points against Richmond, but has been held to 20 or fewer points in the other three matchups. The under is 3-1 in each of these teams’ first four games.
Buckle up for some boring football in which each team struggles to score and fights off self-inflicted mistakes. Both of these programs are averaging 1.5 turnovers per game, and neither has found an answer for what they can rely on for consistent offense. Back the under of 46.5, and this might be a matchup better suited for a corner of the quad box than being viewed as a can’t miss matchup.
