What once was an excellent matchup of elite offense vs. elite defense has changed due to injuries. Joe Burrow is sidelined, leaving Jake Browning in charge of the offense.
It went miserably in Week 3 and the Bengals now have to travel to Denver for a prime time matchup against the Broncos’ gritty defense.
The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites and -520 on the moneyline, while the Bengals are +390 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 44.5 points.
Here are my three favorite player props for this Week 4 NFL game between the Broncos and Bengals.
Broncos vs. Bengals Best Prop Bets
J.K. Dobbins over 65.5 rushing yards (-113)
Although RJ Harvey has earned some snaps, J.K. Dobbins is taking on the bulk of the running back work. He’s been consistent in his role, too, scoring a touchdown in each of the first three weeks.
Dobbins’ carries have decreased each week from 16 to 14 to 11 but his yards have increased each week from 63 to 76 to 83. Even at his lowest rushing yards total, he almost cleared this line.
Week 4’s matchup with the Bengals is a juicy one, too. Cincinnati is known for its lackluster defense, which will open doors for Dobbins. The 26-year-old will likely see a lot of opportunities, especially if the Broncos take a large lead.
Cincinnati ranks 26th in points allowed and 25th in yards against this season; the numbers are slightly better for the run defense. If the Broncos take a big lead, Dobbins will lead a rushing attack to milk the clock.
Even if the game is close, Dobbins should be involved enough to hit the over on this prop.
Ja’Marr Chase under 64.5 receiving yards (-111)
Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and can produce at a high level no matter who is throwing him the ball. That said, there are too many factors working against him in this Monday Night Football matchup.
Firstly, Browning is starting at quarterback. While I’ve backed Browning before, his performance last week against the Vikings was uninspiring. Chase caught 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards in the blowout loss. It’s not a terrible performance, but it’s still under the prop line.
Minnesota has a good defense, but it doesn’t have Patrick Surtain II. He’s considered one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and will likely be shadowing Chase all game. Between that and playing in the high altitude of Denver, Chase doesn’t project to have the best outing.
The one silver lining is that the Bengals may be forced to air it out if they go down early. That could give Chase more opportunities, but I’m not banking on that to save the over.
Bo Nix over 244.5 passing + rushing yards (-114)
Bo Nix has been a bit underwhelming after a solid rookie season. He has five touchdowns to three interceptions and hasn’t thrown for more than 206 yards in a game.
That’s going to change eventually, and what better time than against the Bengals defense. Cincinnati has allowed the 25th most passing yards to opposing teams this season. Nix could take advantage of the weak defense and have a day offensively.
Instead of sticking with just his passing yards, let’s incorporate his rushing yards into this as well. Nix is a regular runner and has eight carries in two of three games this year. Taking a combined prop allows bettors to gain whenever Nix moves the ball forward whether it’s with his feet or arm.