Reds vs. Mariners Bets: How to approach player props from Cincinnati-Seattle on April 15

After a pair of rough series, the Reds find themselves coming off a sweep of the White Sox as they land in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Mariners have yet to win a series in 2024, with an opening weekend split vs. the Red Sox being their best thus far.

Part of that’s been due to the struggles of George Kirby, who dealt against Boston in his first start. Following that gem vs. the Red Sox, the right-hander has given up 13 earned runs and 18 hits in two starts, during which he’s only logged 7 2/3 innings and five strikeouts.

Frankie Montas is also coming off a rough outing, surrendering three earned runs and two unearned over five frames vs. Milwaukee. Prior to that, the Cincy righty had only given up one run throughout 11 2/3 innings to kick off his Reds career.

Here’s a look at their early 2024 individual handedness splits from their respective player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

FRANKIE MONTAS

GEORGE KIRBY

I find Kirby’s props for this game a bit perplexing:

• Strikeouts thrown: 6.5 (over -130 / under +105)
• Outs recorded: 17.5 (over -170 / under +125)
• Hits allowed: 4.5 (over -150 / under +115)

Kirby may be due for a bounce-back outing, but this would be a massive swing back in the other direction against a lineup that has some left-handed bats who crush right-handed pitching. I think the decision is between the under on Kirby’s outs recorded prop and the over on his hits allowed prop. I lean toward the latter, as much as it’s -150.

We know Kirby doesn’t need to go long in a game to get over 4.5 hits allowed. With the over on his outs recorded prop being the notable favorite between the play’s two options, a longer outing will only bake in more opportunities for him to get over this line. With Kirby not walking many hitters and struggling to rack up strikeouts, the Reds are going to have plenty of opportunities to challenge the righty.

Speaking of hitters, here’s a look at how some of this game’s hitter have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz are the most interesting hitters in this one.

After going deep in back-to-back games to close out the Brewers and open things up vs. the White Sox, De La Cruz had a quiet weekend in Chicago (0-for-8 with a walk and four strikeouts.) Those two games actually mark the first time this season De La Cruz has gone hitless in consecutive games.

Fraley isn’t playing every day, yet he’s still cooking. Before his recent three-game tear, the outfielder was hitting .381 with a couple extra-base hits and five runs scored but no RBIs. Over the last three games, Fraley has gone 6-for-12 with six runs, two RBIs and a double.

Neither hitter offers much in the way of value on their total bases lines since both are set at 0.5, but Fraley is +120 to go over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs and De La Cruz is +115 to go over hits+runs+RBIs. Both are playable, and I still lean a bit more toward the latter.

However, I think the better option is a Same Game Parlay for each to log a hit at +160. If you’re looking to add a third name and back a Seattle hitter, Josh Rojas would bring the play to +340 if he’s in the lineup. If not, Ty France brings the play to +275 — he has good career numbers vs. Montas. All four players combined make for a +475 Same Game Parlay.

Watch The Sweat LIVE Saturdays and Sundays from 8 a.m. ET to 10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network or by subscribing to the DraftKings YouTube Channel!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.