This is the second contest of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Joe Boyle is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Trey Yesavage is scheduled to pitch for Toronto.
Rays at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Joe Boyle has appeared in 12 games and started eight, pitching 47 innings. The ERA is 4.40 while the FIP is 4.33. Boyle is averaging 98.5 mph on his fastball with a 10.8% swinging strike rate and 25.9% strikeout rate. The chase rate is only 19.9%, though, and the walk rate is high at 12.2%. Juuuust a bit outside. Boyle has allowed six home runs and has been getting hit hard. The average exit velocity is 91 mph, barrel rate is 11.3% and the hard hit rate is 45.2%.
Five of the six home runs have been served up on the road. The advanced numbers are close for both righties and lefties. The strikeout rate is 26.2% on the road, but the walk rate is 15.5%, causing the K-BB% to be 5% lower than at home. The FIP is 3.00 at home and 6.54 on the road.
Boyle has allowed more than three earned runs four times and gone at least six innings only once. He faced Toronto two starts ago at home and went six innings, did not issue a walk and struck out five without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 29th in strikeout rate, 13th in ISO and sixth in wOBA.
Trey Yesavage has only made two starts and pitched nine innings so far this season. The fastball is averaging 95.6 mph, the swinging strike rate is a whopping 17.9% while the chase rate is 31.4%. He’s been getting blasted, though, as the average exit velocity is 93.7 mph, barrel rate is 12.5% and the hard hit rate is 66.7%! The strikeout rate is 27.5% but the walk rate is 12.5%. The ERA is 5.00 but the FIP is much lower at 2.36, as the BABIP is .333 and the strand rate is 61.5%.
In his first start, he faced the Rays in Tampa Bay and went five innings, walked two and struck out nine while allowing one earned run on three hits. In his second start, he went four innings, walked three and struck out two while allowing four earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 17th-best ISO, and rank 12th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Tampa Bay ranks third in FIP while Toronto ranks 18th.
Rays at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Both pitchers are young and have flamethrowers for arms. But both struggle with command and get hit hard. I worry about Boyle in this one because he’s struggled mightily on the road and the Blue Jays don’t strike out often while still having tons of power in the lineup. Some of the advanced numbers are scary for Yesavage, but a lot of them are chef’s kiss. I think he stymies the Rays in this one while the offense cooks in a playoff-type environment.
