The NFL season is here, and there are some great games on the Week 4 slate. This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 4. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Jaguars +3.5 at 49ers
The Jaguars are hoping to get back on top of the AFC South this season. After winning the division during the 2022-23 season and adding a playoff win on top of that, it looked like Jacksonville was the future of the division. With Trevor Lawrence at the helm, they seemed set to make a jump to competing for Super Bowls, not major regression. However, the Texans drafted CJ Stroud and took over the division, winning it back-to-back years. The Jaguars set the tone by beating Houston last week to move to 2-1 on the season. Now, Jacksonville looks to knock off the 49ers on a West Coast trip.
The Jaguars have run the ball well so far this season. They rank in the top ten in the NFL in both rushing success rate and EPA/rush. San Francisco ranks 19th in the NFL in defensive rushing success rate, and things will just get harder for the 49ers with all of their injuries. Nick Bosa is out for the season, and several other defensive linemen are dealing with injuries as well. Jacksonville should be able to control the time of possession, an essential part of winning as a road underdog. San Francisco might be getting Brock Purdy back, but they are dealing with other injuries on offense. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both questionable for this game, while George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk remain out. If Brock Purdy doesn’t have his full mobility, it could be tough for San Francisco to move the ball. The Jaguars should be able to keep this one within a field goal.
Texans/Patriots Moneyline Parlay (-130)
The Texans are 0-3, looking to keep their season alive against the Titans. Tennessee is also 0-3, making this a desperation spot for both teams. Houston has been great on defense this season, allowing only 17 points per game, the fifth-best mark in the NFL. This will be a tough game for rookie quarterback Cam Ward to get anything going. Tennessee ranks 31st in the NFL in offensive EPA/play this season and should struggle against this tough Houston defense. CJ Stroud has been much better at home in his career than on the road. Stroud is 11-6 at home, compared to 8-10 on the road. This is a must-win game for the Texans, and they should give their best effort to get their first victory of the season.
The Patriots have had an up-and-down start to the Mike Vrabel era. After a bad opening loss to the Raiders, they bounced back with a win over the Dolphins, before losing in Week 3 to the Steelers. They have played pretty well on both sides of the ball, but haven’t been able to piece the important plays together to secure a win. This is a game against the Panthers that they need to win at home if they want to compete for a playoff spot this season. New England ranks in the top half of the league in offensive EPA/play and success rate. They will face a Carolina defense that was the worst in the NFL last season. While they have shown some signs of improvement this season, they are very vulnerable. Drake Maye should be able to move the ball and get the Patriots enough points to secure a win in Week 4.
Six-Point Teaser: Chiefs +8.5 & Jets +8.5
The Chiefs and Ravens face off in one of the biggest games of the weekend. The Chiefs went years being a home underdog only a couple of times. This will be their second time being a home underdog already this season. They were underdogs against the Eagles two weeks ago, and despite losing, they were the better team. They outgained the Chiefs, and Travis Kelce handed away a touchdown, which cost them the game, eventually losing by three points. The Ravens have major issues on defense once again. They rank 27th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play, while the Chiefs rank seventh in offensive EPA/play. Kansas City should hang with Baltimore in this game, with a real chance to win at home. The Chiefs haven’t lost by multiple scores at home since October 2021, and they should keep that streak going in this game.
The Jets have been competitive this season, despite sitting at 0-3. They lost a close one to the Steelers in Week 1, a game they would have had a great chance to win if not for a fumbled kick return. They were manhandled by the Bills in Week 2, but bounced back with a great effort in Week 3. Furthermore, they were beaten by a last-second field goal on the road against Tampa Bay, a respectable effort with backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is expected to start this game against the Dolphins as well. That is probably the better option against Miami. The Dolphins rank dead last in defensive EPA/dropback, and Tyrod Taylor is the more efficient passer between the Jets’ two quarterbacks. Taylor ranks 13th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, a great ranking for a backup quarterback. The Jets should score enough to at least keep it close against an awful defense.
Falcons -1.5 at Commanders
The Falcons need a bounce-back performance. They looked strong through two weeks, losing on a missed field goal that would have sent the game to overtime in Week 1, then getting a great road win over the Vikings in Week 2. However, everything went wrong in Week 3 against the Panthers. Michael Penix Jr. played his worst game as a professional, the defense gave up some chunk plays to Bryce Young and the run game was unable to get going. They should correct some things and look better against Washington. The Commanders are banged up, with injuries to Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown and Jacory Croskey-Merritt all looming over their offense.
Marcus Mariota played well in a substitute appearance last week. However, that came against a bad Las Vegas defense. There was also the advantage of running a different-looking offense with Mariota that the Raiders couldn’t game-plan for. There is a week of tape out on Mariota, and if Daniels can’t play, Atlanta will be ready. If Daniels can go, he won’t be close to 100%. Either way, this Atlanta defense ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA/play and should slow Washington down. If McLaurin and Croskey-Merritt are unable to play, they could be in big trouble. As long as Atlanta can avoid turning it over, they should get the win.
