This is the opener of a three-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting New York Mets.
Brandon Sproat is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Sandy Alcantara is scheduled to pitch for Miami.
Mets at Marlins prediction, preview
Sproat has made three starts and thrown 16 innings in his first appearance in the majors. The fastball averages 96.2 mph and the ERA is 3.94. The FIP is much lower at 2.39, though. The strikeout rate is 23.4% but the walk rate is 9.4%. The swinging strike rate is only 7% but the chase rate is 30.7%. Sproat has done an excellent job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard. He has yet to serve up a home run and the Statcast numbers are good: 87.6 mph average exit velocity, 2.3% barrel rate and 39.5% hard hit rate. The sample size has been small, but it’s been a good debut so far.
The K-BB% is 12.1% higher against lefties, due to the 14.3% walk rate against righties. Same deal with the home/road splits, as the strikeout rate is higher on the road, but the 16.7% walk rate produces a lower K-BB%.
Sproat has allowed more than three earned runs once in three starts and gone at least six innings twice. This still be the first time facing Miami this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins rank 27th in strikeout rate, 22nd in ISO and 13th in wOBA.
Alcantara has a career-high 5.48 ERA through 167.2 innings. The FIP is lower at 4.26, as the strand rate is 61%. He still throws hard, averaging 97.8 mph on the fastball, but the strikeout rate is only 19.4% while the swinging strike rate is 9.3%. The walk rate is 7.7% and he’s allowed 21 home runs. The hard hit rate is 44.4% while the barrel rate is 8.6%.
Twelve of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 13.9% higher against righties. Alcantara has been better at home, as the K-BB% is 3.1% higher and the FIP is over a run lower.
In 30 starts, Alcantara has allowed more than three earned runs 15 times and gone at least six innings 16 times. He has faced the Mets twice this season. The first meeting was in April at home and he went five innings, did not issue a walk and struck out four while allowing two earned runs on three hits. The second meeting was four starts ago in New York and he went seven innings, walked one and struck out six while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets have the 23rd-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the second-best ISO, and rank second in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, New York ranks 13th in FIP while Miami ranks 30th.
Mets at Marlins pick, best bet
With New York still in the hunt for a playoff spot and Miami packing suitcases for the Bahamas, I’ll take the Mets.
