Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
The storyline when the Packers travel to the Cowboys for SNF in NFL Week 4 is obvious — Micah Parsons makes an early return to Dallas. Clearly, Parsons will be seeking revenge against the franchise that refused to give him the contract he was looking for, but I’m going to the offensive side of the ball for Green Bay in terms of a player prop angle.
For the first time since 2002, the Packers used a first-round draft pick to select a wide receiver — Matthew Golden out of Texas. Golden is a burner, and has the potential to make game-changing plays deep downfield. Enter the Cowboys, who are just about the perfect matchup for a player like Golden.
The Cowboys rank dead last in the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed, including 450 to Russell Wilson in their only home game. The Packers are getting thin at WR, most notably due to the long-term loss of Jayden Reed. Golden got off to slow start to his career, only catching 2-of-4 targets for 16 yards over his first two NFL games combined. However, the Packers were holding him back in terms of playing time. When he was on the field, though, Jordan Love just missed some deep balls down field to the rookie. I expect the Packers to connect on some of those plays on SNF.
Golden had a breakout in Week 3, which was the first full game Reed missed. Golden played on 83% of the snaps, and caught all four of his targets for 52 yards against a very good Cleveland defense. I expect Golden to slot into a similar role in this game, but with much more big-play chances against this putrid Dallas secondary.
Through three games, the Cowboys have allowed eight opposing pass catchers to go over 40 receiving yards, which happens to be Golden’s player prop for this game. I think Golden breaks out on the big stage, and has potential for 60-plus yards and a deep touchdown. I’ll gladly play the over on his SNF receiving prop, and think Golden’s long reception prop, alternate receiving yards and touchdown props are all in play here.
NFL Pick: Matthew Golden OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
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