The Fever are hosting the Aces on Friday for Game 3 of this semi-finals playoff series. This best of five series is currently even at 1-1. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 163 points.
Below, I break down this Fever vs. Aces Game 3 and give a pick.
Fever vs. Aces preview, prediction
After the Fever upset the Aces 89-73 in Game 1, Las Vegas punched back in Game 2 and defeated Indiana 90-68. It was a dominant performance for the Aces on both sides of the ball, as they shot 53.8% from the field and held the Fever to a 41% field goal percentage.
Las Vegas led by as many as 26 points, and after a subpar 16-point showing from A’ja Wilson in Game 1, the MVP looked like an MVP in Game 2, posting 25 points, nine rebounds and a season-high five steals. NaLyssa Smith and Jackie Young also scored 18 and 13 points, respectively, and Chelsea Gray notched 10 assists.
In the loss for the Fever, Odyssey Sims was great with 18 points and seven assists. Lexie Hull added 15 points and Aliyah Boston tallied a double-double. However, leading scorer Kelsey Mitchell hit a wall, scoring just 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting. With Caitlin Clark (groin) sidelined, Indiana needs Mitchell to score the ball at a star level to keep pace with the Aces and there is hope the guard can bounce back in Game 3. This postseason, Mitchell is averaging 23.4 PPG, which ranks second only to Wilson in the WNBA.
While the Aces ran away with a win in Game 2, the Fever are still 3-2 vs. Las Vegas this season with a notable 17.7-point margin of victory. This is obviously concerning for the Aces, especially with this series now shifting to Indiana. Las Vegas is better overall than this Clark-less Fever club, but Indiana has played some inspiring basketball this postseason and Game 3 should be a competitive affair.
Fever vs. Aces pick, best bet
Despite dropping Game 1, the Aces were a very confident group in Game 2 and they looked like a team that had just recently won 17 games in a row. With Game 3 in Indiana, the Fever aren’t going to roll over again, but in the end, Las Vegas should prevail and take a 2-1 series lead.
The Aces haven’t been great at covering this season, with a 24-22-1 ATS record, so backing Las Vegas to cover this 4.5-point spread feels dicey. Instead, let’s attack the total, especially with how the prior meetings between these teams have gone this season. The five matchups between the Aces and the Fever have only produced 155.0 PPG on average and only one of these games has exceeded 163 points.
