The New York Yankees have gotten hot at just the right time, winning seven of their last matchups to match the Toronto Blue Jays atop the American League East with just four games to play. But the job’s not finished. Toronto owns the tiebreaker over New York, meaning the Bombers must finish with a better record to claim the division title for a second consecutive year.
And what an opportunity they have to pull ahead tonight. While Toronto attempts not to get swept by the feisty Boston Red Sox, New York gets one more game against the lowly Chicago White Sox at 7:05 PM in the Bronx.
The Yankees (90-68) took the first two matchups of the three-game set, walking off the White Sox (58-100) on Tuesday and thumping them Wednesday off the back of a Max Fried gem and two-homer performance from Aaron Judge.
New York is a heavy -313 favorite to pull off the sweep according DraftKings Sportsbook‘s Moneyline, with the run total set at 8.5 runs.
White Sox at Yankees prediction, preview
Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon gets the start against his former team. Not only has he enjoyed his best season in Pinstripes – he’s become one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. The 32-year-old southpaw owns a 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts over a career-high 189.1 innings this season, leading the American League with a .187 batting average against.
According to Statcast Rodon’s pitching run value (29) ranks in the 97th percentile of the league.
He enters Thursday’s matchup on the heels of a seven inning gem against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, where he held the O’s to just one run with eight strikeouts. Rodon boasts a 2.16 ERA in September.
This will be Rodon’s second encounter with the White Sox this season. On August 29, he hurled six innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts.
Going up against Rodon is 28-year-old right-hander Davis Martin – who hasn’t enjoyed such success during his third season in the majors. He owns a 4.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts across 24 starts (25 appearances) and 138.1 innings pitched, by far a career high.
Martin’s underlying metrics – 5.30 xERA and .285 xBA — fail to paint a prettier picture. He doesn’t strike out many players, nor does he generate a ton of whiffs. He gets hit – hard, according to Statcast. The righty’s average exit velocity (90.8 mph), barrel rate (10.0%), and hard-hit rate (44.4%) all grade out as poor, compared to the rest of the league.
Martin faced the Yanks on August 28, getting yanked before he could escape the fourth inning. He surrendered four runs (three earned) on four hits, three walks, and two home runs. His latest start – six innings of three-run ball against the San Diego Padres – was an encouraging sign, though he carries a 4.03 ERA in September.
White Sox at Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees boast the most potent offense in baseball, one that’s jam-packed with lefties who could pounce on the right-handed pitcher. Ben Rice and Trent Grisham have been electric at the plate this season, while Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. took Martin deep in their last matchup.
Chicago will also have to worry about Judge, who’s in the midst of one of the most dominant seasons of all-time – yet still might not win the MVP award. In addition to hitting home runs No. 50 and 51 last night, Judge carries a video game-esque .409 average and 1.478 with seven home runs over the last 15 days. A formidable opponent, to say the least.
