This is the finale of a three-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Miami Marlins.
Janson Junk is scheduled to pitch for Miami, while Walker Buehler is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia.
Marlins at Phillies prediction, preview
Junk has a 4.27 ERA through 105.1 innings. The FIP is much lower at 3.23, though. The strikeout rate is only 17.1% while the swinging strike rate is 8.8%, but the chase rate is a healthy 30.1%. The walk rate is a minuscule 3% and he’s only allowed eight home runs. The Statcast numbers aren’t good, as the average exit velocity is 91.9 mph, barrel rate is 8.9% and the hard hit rate is 48.2%.
Six of the eight home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 8% higher against righties while the FIP is 2.35 compared to 4.11 against lefties. He’s been slightly better at home.
Junk has made 15 starts in 20 appearances. He’s allowed more than three earned runs five times and gone at least six innings six times. This will be the first time facing Philadelphia this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies rank 26th in strikeout rate, eighth in ISO and third in wOBA.
Buehler used to be a hard-throwing ace for the Dodgers. Injuries have zapped him, though. He used to have a strikeout rate in the 29% range with a walk rate in the 6% area. Now, he’s down at a 16.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. The swinging strike rate is only 7.8% while the chase rate is 25.7%. He has done a decent job of limiting hard contact with an 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 38.5% hard hit rate, but the barrel rate is 9.6%. Buehler has allowed 22 home runs in 121 innings. The ERA is 5.13 while the FIP is 5.71.
Fourteen of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The numbers are similar against both righties and lefties, with the difference being the home run discrepancy to righties. He’s been better at home, but that’s not saying much. The K-BB% is 8% vs. 3.9% on the road. The FIP is 5.32 at home and 6.1 on the road.
In 23 starts, Buehler has allowed more than three earned runs eight times and gone at least six innings eight times. This will be the first time facing Miami this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins have the 27th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 21st-best ISO, and rank 13th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Miami ranks 29th in FIP while Philadelphia ranks 19th.
Marlins at Phillies pick, best bet
A lot of the numbers look solid for Junk, but he gets hit hard. That’s no bueno against a potent Phillies lineup that has tons of power. The bullpen stinks in Miami as well. On the flip side, Buehler … talk about stinking. The Marlins offense is far from potent but Buehler is that susceptible.
