This is the finale of a three-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Drew Rasmussen is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Cade Povich is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore.
Rays at Orioles prediction, preview
Rasmussen has thrown a career-high 147.2 innings this season. The strikeout rate is down at 21.6%, the swinging strike rate is a career-low 9.4% and the chase rate is 28.6%. The walk rate is 6.2% and he’s allowed 18 home runs. The ERA is 2.80. Over the last five seasons, the ERA has been in a range of 2.62 and 2.84. Remarkable consistency. Granted, he’s thrown over 100 innings in just one other season, but whatever. Rasmussen has been fortunate this season, as the FIP is 3.85 due to the .245 BABIP and 83.1% strand rate.
Eleven of the 18 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. Twelve of the 18 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 4.7% higher against lefties, but the higher home run rate makes the FIP slightly higher. The numbers are similar at home and on the road except for the higher home run rate at home.
In 30 starts, Rasmussen has allowed more than three earned runs only three times and gone at least six innings eight times. He faced Baltimore at home back in June, going 5.1 innings, walking three and striking out five while allowing two earned runs on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles rank fourth in strikeout rate, 11th in ISO and 20th in wOBA.
Povich has a 5.06 ERA through 106.2 innings. He’s started 19 of his 21 appearances. The FIP is lower at 4.26, as the BABIP is elevated at .339. The strikeout rate is a healthy 24.7% but the walk rate is high at 8.9%. He’s allowed 17 home runs. Povich has gotten hit hard, as the average exit velocity is 91.3 mph, barrel rate is 11.8% and the hard hit rate is 47.7%.
Thirteen of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties and at home. The K-BB% is 4.6% higher against lefties while the FIP is slightly lower. The K-BB% is 2% lower at home, but the 1.89 HR/9 elevates the FIP to 5.02, compared to 3.21 on the road.
Against left-handed pitching, the Rays have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 18th-best ISO, and rank 21st in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Tampa Bay ranks fifth in FIP while Baltimore ranks 16th.
Rays at Orioles pick, best bet
Rasmussen has been excellent at suppressing runs while the Rays bullpen has been very good. Povich has been susceptible to righties and the Rays will likely stack em up tomorrow.
