This is the finale of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Braxton Ashcraft is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh, while Nick Lodolo is scheduled to pitch for Cincinnati.
Pirates at Reds prediction, preview
Braxton Ashcraft has appeared in 25 games this season and pitched 65.1 innings, but only seven in a starting capacity. The fastball averages 96.7 mph and the ERA of 2.62 is supported by the 2.87 FIP. The strikeout rate is 24.4% and the swinging strike rate is 11.7%. The walk rate is high at 8.5%. He’s only allowed three home runs. The average exit velocity is 87.9 mph, his barrel rate is 5% and the hard-hit rate is 38.3%.
The K-BB% is similar against righties and lefties, but the strikeout rate is 4.9 percentage points higher against lefties with a walk rate that also comes in at 6.0 percentage points higher. Ashcraft has been better on the road, as the K-BB% is 6.5 percentage points higher but primarily because the walk rate is 9.7 percentage points lower.
Ashcraft has not allowed more than three earned runs once this season. He has not gone six innings in any outing and gone five innings three times. He faced Cincinnati once this season back in August, going 3.1 innings in which he walked one and struck out five while allowing one earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds rank sixth in strikeout rate, 18th in ISO and 15th in wOBA.
Nick Lodolo was once a hard-throwing lefty who missed bats at a high rate but also had some Ricky Vaughn in him. Well, after many injuries and some MLB maturity, the walk rate is only 4.6% now while the strikeout rate is still a decent 23.5% through 149.1 innings. The swinging strike rate is still solid at 11.9% while the chase rate is 30.9%. The ERA is 3.44 while the FIP is 3.96. Lodolo has given up 22 home runs.
19 of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of righties. He has only faced 141 lefties so far. 14 of the 22 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 6.1 percentage points higher against righties, but the home run discrepancy has the FIP higher. Same deal with the home/road splits.
In 27 starts, Lodolo has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 13 times. He faced the Pirates in Pittsburgh back in May, going six innings, walked one and struck out seven while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate in the MLB, the 19th-best ISO, and rank 27th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since August 1, Pittsburgh ranks fourth in FIP while Cincinnati ranks 16th.
Pirates at Reds pick, best bet
Great American Ballpark can be brutal for pitchers, but I think the Pirates’ pitching staff prohibits a shelling. Lodolo has been susceptible at home, but I don’t think the Pirates can take advantage of that and they strikeout at a high rate against left-handed pitching. Lodolo can still miss bats and rack up Ks.
