Wednesday night continues a great final week of the Major League Baseball regular season with 13 games scheduled under the lights. With plenty of playoff position drama still in play and chances for players to prove their potential headed into next season, storylines abound across the slate. If you’re looking to get in on the action with some home run props on Wednesday, there are plenty of good options to consider from all the different situations. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for later this Wednesday night are from Brandon Lowe, Josh Naylor and Zach Cole.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday night.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe to record 1+ home runs (+359)
The first of the three power-hitting lefties on the board that I like for Wednesday is Brandon Lowe, who takes on the Orioles in Baltimore this Wednesday night.
The Rays pulled Lowe and Junior Caminero toward the end of their loss on Tuesday, but as long as they’re in the lineup on Wednesday, they’ll be solid plays on their home run props.
The Orioles will give the ball to Tyler Wells, who has made just three starts this season and pitched effectively with a 2.04 ERA and 3.94 FIP. He has allowed three homers in his three games, though, and lefties have hit all three of those shots while posting a .315 wOBA against him. In Triple-A, he also limited damage effectively but still made mistakes that ended up in the seats, allowing three homers in 23 1/3 Triple-A innings.
Lowe is a good way to go up against Wells on Wednesday night since the 31-year-old lefty has 30 homers on the year. He has hit .257 with a .334 wOBA and 46.1% hard-hit rate.
While exactly half of his homers have come on the road, 25 of his 30 homers have come against righties like Wells. Two of those homers have come in his last five games, including this blast that gave him his second 30-homer season of his career.
Lowe’s home run props come at solid value since Wells has a solid ERA, but Lowe has a solid chance to go yard on Wednesday night based on his recent power production and better matchup than initially appears.
Josh Naylor to record 1+ home runs (+379)
Naylor and the Mariners clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday but still have plenty to play for with the division title still on the line. He’ll likely be back in the lineup on Wednesday at home against the Rockies, and he’s a strong option as another lefty power bat.
Naylor went 2-for-4 with three RBIs on Tuesday, and he has been a key addition for the Mariners since joining them just before the deadline. In his 51 games with the team, he’s hitting .292 with nine doubles, nine homers, 17 stolen bases and a .352 wOBA.
Over that stretch, he has a 43.9% hard-hit rate, and in his last eight games, he has hit .452 with 13 hard-hit batted-ball events. In addition to his big double from Tuesday, he had this monster shot on Friday:
That blast gave him 20 homers on the season, and he’ll look to add No. 21 on Wednesday night against Tanner Gordon. Gordon has a 6-7 record in 14 starts with a 6.00 ERA, 4.65 FIP and 13 homers against him. He only has 24 1/3 innings away from Coors Field this year, but he has a 7.40 ERA, 4.79 FIP and five homers allowed in that small sample size. Lefties have hit eight of the 13 homers he has allowed this season with a .316 batting average and .405 wOBA against him away from Coors Field.
Naylor is the Mariners’ big power lefty, and I love his home run props at this price on Wednesday night.
Zach Cole to record 1+ home runs (+442)
We’ll close things out with one more lefty batter against a pitcher who has served up gopher balls to lefties. For this one, though, we’ll go with a less-established player who is just starting to be a regular option in our home run props.
Cole hit 14 homers in Double-A and five homers in Triple-A for a .408 wOBA over his 97 games in the minors, earning Houston’s Minor League Player of the Year. He has only played 10 games in the majors, but he already has three homers to go with a 61.1% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
On Tuesday, Cole went 0-for-3 against the Athletics, but he went 2-for-4 with this homer on Sunday Night Baseball against the Mariners.
Cole will be in a good spot against J.T. Ginn in Sacramento, one of the most homer-happy environments in baseball this year. Ginn has given up 17 homers this season, and lefties have 10 of those blasts with a .338 batting average and .443 wOBA. He has been especially vulnerable against lefties at home, where they have a .405 batting average, .555 wOBA and eight homers in his eight home starts.
Facing Ginn sets up nicely for Cole to deliver a late-night smash for Wednesday’s home run props, so I’m backing the rookie at this number in a game the Astros need to have. I also like Hunter Brown as my top SP in my MLB DFS picks for the day, since I think Brown and Cole will be able to get the ‘Stros their much-needed win.
