This is the opener of a three-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Dean Kremer is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore.
Rays at Orioles prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot has a 3.77 ERA through 164.2 innings. The FIP is slightly higher at 4.41 as the BABIP is .256. The strikeout rate is a solid 24.6% but the walk rate is high at 9%. Pepiot has allowed 26 home runs. The average exit velocity is 90.3 mph, barrel rate is 9.6% and the hard hit rate is 42.9%. The swinging strike rate is 11.7%.
16 of the 26 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 17 of the 26 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 4.6% higher against lefties while the FIP is almost a run lower. The numbers are better at home, but the FIP is higher due to the home runs.
In 30 starts, Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs seven times and gone at least six innings 17 times. He faced Baltimore three times this season. The first meeting was at home in June and he went eight innings, walked two and struck out 11 while allowing one earned run on four hits. The second meeting was in Baltimore at the end of June. Pepiot only lasted 1.2 innings, walked two and struck out one while allowing four earned runs on five hits. The third meeting was in July at home and he went six innings, walked one and struck out eight while allowing five earned runs on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles rank fourth in strikeout rate, 11th in ISO, and 20th in wOBA.
Dean Kremer has a 4.39 ERA and 4.05 FIP through 164 innings this season. The strikeout rate is 20% with a 6.5% walk rate. The swinging strike rate is 10.4% and the chase rate is 29%. The average exit velocity is 88.4 mph, barrel rate is 8.6% and the hard hit rate is 36%. He’s allowed 22 home runs.
14 of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The numbers are similar to righties and lefties except for the home run discrepancy. He’s been site neutral.
In 28 starts, Kremer has allowed more than three earned runs 13 times while going at least six innings 11 times. He faced Tampa Bay three times. The first meeting was in June on the road and he went five innings, walked two and struck out four while allowing one earned run on four hits. The second meeting was two starts later at home. Kremer went seven innings, walked one and struck out six without allowing an earned run on three hits. The third meeting was in July on the road and Kremer went seven innings, walked three and struck out six while allowing one earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 16th-best ISO, and rank 12th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Tampa Bay ranks third in FIP, while Baltimore ranks 17th.
Rays at Orioles pick, best bet
Runs are expected to be scored in this one as the total is 9, but Pepiot has pitched better on the road while Kremer has been more-than-solid against the Rays this season.
