Game 1 of the semifinals between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx was intense. The road underdog Mercury built up a seven-point lead by halftime, only to watch the Lynx even things up going into the fourth quarter. Then Minnesota did its thing, shutting things down on defense while its scorers got loose. It ended up in an 82-69 victory to defend their home court and move one win closer to their championship goals.
Now the two will do battle once again in Minnesota. The Lynx are 7.5-point favorites at home and hold -355 odds on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury, as road underdogs, are +280 on the moneyline. The total is set at 158.5 points. Let’s take a look at the best bets and predictions for this Mercury–Lynx matchup.
Mercury vs. Lynx prediction, pick
It was truly a tale of two halves for the Phoenix offense in Game 1. Despite shooting 1-of-8 from three-point range in the first half, they dominated inside the arc, cashing in 21-of-31 (68%) from two-point range. Then Minnesota decided to buckle down.
Struggles from deep continued, as the Mercury shot 2-of-15 from deep in the second half. Minnesota started to pack the paint and forced the Mercury to shoot 7-of-21 inside the arc. Shooting 25% in a half won’t get you very far, especially when the Lynx get their ball movement going on offense.
In particular, the Mercury had no answer for Courtney Williams. The All-Star truly shouldered the offensive load in this game, putting up 23 points on 11-of-19 shooting while dishing out seven assists, leading the team in both categories. She also pitched in eight rebounds and a game-high five steals. If Courtney plays at this level while Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, and Alanna Smith continue their expected levels of play, this Lynx team may truly be unstoppable.
The spacing issue has plagued Phoenix all year. If they continue to throw up bricks beyond the arc, it makes things too easy for Minnesota’s elite defense. I’ll have to see that the Mercury can handle this team for a full 40 minutes before I believe it.
