This is the opener of a three-game series in San Francisco between the Giants and visiting St. Louis Cardinals.
Michael McGreevy is scheduled to pitch for St. Louis, while Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch for San Francisco.
Cardinals at Giants prediction, preview
McGreevy is a solid pitcher, posting a 4.08 ERA and 3.75 FIP through 86 innings. His control is excellent, with a 4.2% walk rate, and he’s allowed only eight home runs. But he just doesn’t miss bats and strike out batters: he has a swinging strike rate of just 7.8%, a chase rate of 24.3%, and a strikeout rate of 14.9%.
Six of the eight home runs have come against lefties and six have come at home. He’s been far better against righties than lefties, posting an 8.2% K-BB% and 4.89 FIP against southpaws and a 13% K-BB% and 2.90 FIP against righties. The 25-year-old’s K-BB% is almost identical at home and on the road, but thanks to the home run discrepancy, his 4.06 home FIP lags behind his 3.31 mark on the road.
In 14 starts, McGreevy has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 10 times. He faced the Giants three starts ago at home and went four innings, walking one and striking out three while allowing six earned runs on nine hits.
Against right-handed pitching, San Francisco ranks 14th in strikeout rate, 20th in ISO, and 25th in wOBA.
Verlander, meanwhile, is having a good season for a 42-year-old. The three-time Cy Young Award winner sports a 3.75 ERA with a 3.71 FIP while averaging 94 mph with his fastball. His strikeout rate is a solid 20.7% thanks to his 10.8% swinging strike rate. Though his 8% walk rate is somewhat elevated, he’s done a good job mitigating the damage and has conceded just 13 home runs. Opponents are posting an 88.9 mph average exit velocity, 7.9% barrel rate, and 37.5% hard hit rate.
Nine of Verlander’s 13 home runs have been served up at home. His numbers are similar against both lefties and righties, with a slight lean towards righties. He’s been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 8.2% higher but the home run discrepancy brings the FIP spread tighter.
In 27 starts, Verlander has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 11 times. However, he’s in hot form; in his last four starts, he’s allowed a total of one earned run, completing seven innings in each of his last two outings. He faced St. Louis three starts ago on the road and spun six scoreless innings, conceding just three hits while striking out six and walking none.
The Cardinals have the 19th-highest strikeout rate in MLB against righties to go along with the third-worst ISO and sixth-lowest wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, St. Louis ranks seventh in FIP, while San Francisco ranks 11th.
Cardinals at Giants pick, best bet
Verlander has been pitching well as of late, and I expect that to continue tonight. The Giants pounded McGreevy last outing, and I like them to have success against him once again because he just doesn’t miss bats.
