Last season, the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens were two of the best teams in the NFL. Detroit earned the number one seed in the NFC while Baltimore was the AFC’s third seed. But both teams lost in the Conference Championship. And both teams lost their season opener in Week 1. Then both teams reminded everyone that they are two of the best teams in the league with dominating performances in Week 2. Now they go head-to-head, so get your popcorn ready.
Baltimore has the second-highest EPA per dropback, behind the Indianapolis Colts. Daniel Jones for MVP! I’m kidding; not kidding. The six passing touchdowns are tied for second in the NFL. The 10.0 average yards per attempt lead the league. The ground game has produced the sixth-highest EPA per carry. Last season, Baltimore led the league in EPA per carry. The 5.7 yards per carry are tied for first.
Detroit is currently on the podium for the bronze medal in EPA per dropback. They have also thrown six touchdowns. Interestingly, Baltimore has been blitzed 40% of the time this season while Detroit has been blitzed only 15.3%. On the ground, Detroit is right behind Baltimore in EPA per carry in fifth position.
Defensively is where the main differences are between the two teams through two weeks. Baltimore has the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback while blitzing 18.4% of the time. Detroit has the eighth-highest while blitzing 37.5% of the time. On the ground, Baltimore has uncharacteristically allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry, but the yards per carry are only 4.2. Detroit has posted the lowest EPA per carry at -0.26 with a yards per carry of 4.1.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BAL -4.5 over DET with the total at 53.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DET @ BAL)
Captain’s Picks
Lamar Jackson ($17,700 CP): Jackson has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and has one of the highest in the NFL. He’s an adept passer that doesn’t just dink and dunk, but what truly makes Jackson special is the rushing prowess. Last season, he failed to put up at least 20 FPTS only twice while going over 30 FPTS four times. To start this season, he finished with 29.36 and 26.3 FPTS in divergent fashion. In the first contest, he rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown while throwing two touchdowns on only 19 pass attempts. Last week, he threw 29 times and had four touchdowns. This game has a robust total of 53.5, so points are expected to be scored, and Jackson should have a hand in most of them for Baltimore. It’s within the range of outcomes that this game goes bonkers and Jackson throws over 40 times, something he did twice last season.
UTIL Plays
Isaac TeSlaa ($1,200): If you need salary and have an iron-lined stomach that never requires Pepto-Bismol, then TeSlaa could be the guy for you. TeSlaa has two targets on the season. Woohoo! The snaps did increase, though, from 4% in Week 1 to 29% last week. I still respect Baltimore’s run defense, despite what the numbers say, and think Detroit will have to tilt more towards the air, especially since the Ravens will likely be putting up points. TeSlaa had an excellent offseason and both of his catches this season were of the Randy Moss-variety. It is said that targets are earned. TeSlaa may have done just that.
Justice Hill ($2,800): Hill has played only 45% and 39% of the snaps through two weeks. He’s not the grinder between the tackles; that’s Derrick Henry’s job. Hill is the pass catcher and has five targets on the season. Hill could see a slight increase in snaps this week if the game does become a shootout.
Jared Goff ($9,400): Goff outdoors has often been a terrible idea to put hard-earned American dollars behind. That said, that doesn’t mean he’s never had good games outdoors, because he has. There are so many variables in football and sometimes the bad play has been due to the opposing team having a great defense. Well, I think Detroit will find it difficult running the ball in this one, so if the Lions are going to put up points and keep up with the Ravens, it will likely come off the shoulder of Goff.
Fades
Derrick Henry ($10,200): I hate this fade because Henry is coming off a game in which he put up 2.3 FPTS and he’s always in play to go for 30+ FPTS. That said, he doesn’t catch passes and I think this game tilts toward the air on both sides. It would probably be a good idea to create a hedge lineup with Henry going bonkers, just in case.
THE OUTCOME
I think the scoreboard operators will be icing their fingers and wrists after this one, as points will likely be scored, which means fantasy goodies raining down from the heavens like manna.
Final Score: Lions 31, Ravens 34
