Eight days remain until the end of the MLB regular season and the postseason race continues to create drama on a daily basis. The Boston Red Sox (84-70) are tied for the third and final AL Wild Card spot with the next-closest team just 1.5 games shy. Today, they face off with the Tampa Bay Rays (75-79) once again in a divisional showdown with the latter looking to play spoiler to a rival’s playoff hopes.
Here’s a Rays vs. Red Sox prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s action.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox are looking to hold on in the final Wild Card spot and survive until postseason time with the Cleveland Guardians fast approaching in the rearview mirror. Boston holds a 5-5 record over their last 10 games, but the offense hasn’t performed up to their usual standards this month with just 4.86 runs per game in September as they struggle to send runners home. The absence of Roman Anthony (oblique) plays a huge role in that regard, but the bats are still hitting well overall with a .271 average and .750 OPS, both top-eight marks in the sport. After being homer-happy for much of the year, this team’s power feels lacking as of late with just 16 homers and a .150 ISO over the 16 games this month. Still, they’re avoiding strikeouts better than most teams with a 20.5% K%, so that’s a positive sign. As for the pitching staff, Boston’s 4.30 ERA and 1.33 WHIP rank 18th and 19th, though they’ve underperformed a 3.96 FIP.
After looking solid through the first half of the year, the Rays’ season took a nosedive around the Trade Deadline and things never improved back to how they were before. Now below .500 and out of the postseason picture, they don’t have much to play for but can try to bounce this rival from the playoff race as a bonus. Tampa Bay averages just 4.17 runs per game in September despite a .265 team average and .749 OPS, as well as the third-best BABIP this month at .323. The Rays are posting the eighth-worst BB/K at 0.33, but they do have a .159 ISO and 22 homers in their 18 games this month, so that’s a positive. Where the arms are concerned, this team posts a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, both top-10 rankings, as well as a 24.6% K%. With the offense struggling to rack up runs once runners reach base, though, those marks are largely wasted and Tampa Bay’s just 3-7 in their last 10.
Rays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
The odds on DraftKings Sportsbook indicate a relative toss-up today. The Rays are slight -112 Moneyline favorites but the Red Sox come in at -108 as well, while the run total sits at just eight.
On the mound this evening, Tampa Bay starts veteran Adrian Houser (3.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 85 SO in 113.0 IP). The 32-year-old right-hander is a ground-ball pitcher who also limits barrels, but he posts just an 18.2% K%. He faces Boston lefty Kyle Harrison (4.05 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 27 SO in 26.2 IP), who was acquired in the Rafael Devers trade. He’ll make just his second appearance of the season for the Red Sox and first start for the team, and while his advanced metrics aren’t eye-popping, he does have a fastball that averages 95.1 mph.
This feels like a tough one, but I’m actually inclined to take the over today at -118 odds. Houser posts some very solid numbers but the Red Sox offense is still very capable of putting up numbers even in Anthony’s absence, and they have plenty to play for. The Rays have hit the ball well and see what’s probably a positive matchup against Harrison since he’s so inexperienced, so I think they should score a few runs today despite their low scoring average this month. With a warm day out at Steinbrenner Field, the ball should carry a little more than usual and give a slight boost to scoring here. It’s tough to pick a winner here, so let’s just root for some runs instead.
Best bet: Over eight runs (-118)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
