Starting at 3:30 p.m. ET on the Saturday college football slate, Florida State will host Kent State. Florida State was off last week but enters with a 2-0 record after defeating Alabama and East Texas A&M to start the year. Kent State opened up the season with a victory over Merrimack, but has dropped back-to-back games against Texas Tech and Buffalo.
This will be the first-ever matchup between these two programs. Florida State last faced a team from the MAC in 2018 when it defeated Northern Illinois 37-19.
Looking at the odds for this matchup, Florida State enters as 44.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 55.5.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 4 matchup.
Kent State vs. Florida State prediction, preview
Kent State Preview
The Golden Flashes are 1-2 straight up, but 2-1 against the spread thus far. Coming off a winless season last year and going 1-23 over the past two seasons, this already feels like progress. They took down Merrimack in the season opener, 21-17, which was a sigh of relief for the entire program. Kent State managed to cover the 48.5-point spread against Texas Tech and remained competitive against Buffalo, eventually losing 31-28. This should still be looked at as a sign of progress, as they entered as 24-point underdogs, even if the fact still remains that the program has lost 24 straight games to FBS opponents.
CJ Montes was the team’s starting quarterback coming out of training camp, but suffered an injury and missed the previous game against Buffalo while being limited in the two games before. Dru DeShields has made the most of the opportunity in his absence, throwing for 513 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Montes’ status is still up in the air, but DeShields is making the case why he deserves the job regardless. Montes is a transfer from Fordham and was an All-Patriot-League quality QB in 2023 before injuries derailed his year last year. DeShields has also seen his collegiate career derailed due to injury and looks to finally be healthy.
Kent State has struggled to get much of a run game going. Gavin Garcia leads the team with 45 carries for 135 yards and has not cracked the end zone through three games. DeShields ranks second on the team with 61 rushing yards but has a pair of scores with his legs. Collectively, they are averaging just 2.6 yards per carry as a team. Cade Wolford is the team’s top pass catcher with seven receptions for 223 yards and four receiving touchdowns this year. No other member of the team has cracked 90 receiving yards.
The Golden Flashes rank 104th in the country in scoring at 21.0 points per game and 114th in total yards with 319.0 per contest. They are allowing 36.7 points per game, which ranks 126th, and have given up 469.3 total yards per game, which ranks 129th.
Florida State Preview
The Seminols will have the rest advantage in this game after taking off last week following their 2-0 start. Coming off a 2-10 season last year, Florida State made a statement with its opening week victory over Alabama. They held control of the matchup throughout and produced a 31-17 victory to start the year. Florida State followed this up by proving they are capable of steamrolling inferior competition and played East Texas A&M off the field in a 77-3 victory. They outgained the Lions 729-197 in total yards.
Tommy Castellanos put himself on the college football map during his time at Boston College and has helped further elevate Florida State this season. Through the opening two games, he has thrown for 389 yards and three touchdowns while adding 85 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs. Florida State allowed four different players to take snaps at quarterback during the East Texas A&M matchup, with the game out of hand, and Castellanos will surely have some more impressive statistical outputs in the coming games.
Micahi Danzy has taken just four carries this season, but leads Florida State with 109 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Castellanos leads the team with 20 rush attempts, but four other players have recorded double-digit carries. Duce Robinson headlines the wide receiver production with seven receptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Gavin Sawchuk, Ousmane Kromah, Amaree Williams, and Jayvan Boggs have also pulled in a receiving touchdown.
While the sample size is still small and the level of competition should be factored in, Florida State is averaging 54.0 points per game, which ranks third in the country. They are producing the 11th most yards at 555.5 total yards per game, which includes 260.0 through the air (42nd) and 295.5 rushing yards (42nd). Opponents are scoring just 10.0 points per game against the Seminols, which ranks 15th, and they are allowing the 30th fewest yards at 269.0 per game.
Kent State vs. Florida State pick, best bet
Florida State may lean on a run-heavy style of offense, but they have no trouble running up the score. They may not be quite as good as their metrics are currently indicating, but there is a massive gap in talent between these two teams, and expect this to be put on full display in this matchup.
Last season took a toll on this Seminoles program, and they have returned with a chip on their shoulders. Coming off the bye week is an additional advantage that this team did not need in the first place. Kent State was able to keep it close with Buffalo, but the 48-point loss to Texas Tech is a game in which there are clearer comparisons in the talent gap. For what it is worth, Texas Tech has climbed to 17th in the AP Poll while Florida State sits in seventh.
Expect Kent State to have no answer for the dual-threat style of Castellanos and for Florida State’s defense to make its impact felt all over the field. Florida State was able to limit Alabama to 17 points, and the Crimson Tide went on to put up 73 points against UL Monroe and 38 points against Wisconsin since this point. Count on this matchup getting ugly and for Kent State to struggle greatly to put up any offensive production while Florida State lays in on thick. They have put themselves in a position to be viewed as a National Championship threat and would help secure their place in these conversations with some more dominant victories. 44.5 is a huge spread, but both of these teams have finished a game beyond this margin already this year. Look for the same to happen this week and for Florida State to produce a victory of 45+ points.
