As of Friday morning, the Astros and Mariners are tied atop the AL West. This weekend’s three-game series will go a long way in determining which club punches their ticket to the playoffs. For the winner, a potential first-round bye. For the loser, postseason play is no guarantee. The red-hot Guardians are just two games back of Houston and Seattle. Which of these two rivals will earn a much-needed win tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s meeting between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros.
Seattle is favored (-111) over Houston, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction, preview
Both sides will be sending their best pitchers to the mound tonight. For Seattle, it’ll be right-hander Bryan Woo. The first-time All-Star has enjoyed a breakout campaign. Through 181.2 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.02 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 191 strikeouts. The 25-year-old also owns a 3.42 ERA over 23.2 career innings vs. Houston. Woo has allowed more than three runs in just six of his 29 outings this season.
On the other side, this Astros offense is not in great shape. The team is averaging just 4.26 runs per game in 2025, the ninth-lowest mark in baseball. The return of Yordan Alvarez had brought a spark, but the slugger suffered a sprained ankle on Monday. If there’s any reason for optimism in Houston, third baseman Isaac Paredes will be activated off the injured list tonight. Through 94 games, the 26-year-old is slashing .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers and 50 RBIs.
To counter Woo, it’ll be fellow All-Star Hunter Brown taking the hill. The right-hander has carried over his momentum from last summer’s phenomenal second half. Through 174.1 innings, he’s recorded a 2.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 192 strikeouts. Granted, this matchup might not be a walk in the park. When playing away from home, Seattle is averaging 5.09 runs per game. That’s the third-highest mark in all of baseball. In addition, the Mariners scored three runs in four innings when they last met Brown on July 20th. Still, Houston’s ace has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his previous nine appearances.
Mariners vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mariners vs. Astros under 7.5 total runs (-120)
The Mariners have been on fire, winning 11 of their last 12 outings. However, they didn’t face elite pitching during that time. This lineup hasn’t played anyone of Brown’s caliber in recent weeks. On the other side, Woo is a tough matchup for a Houston offense missing its best hitter. These two hurlers look poised to dominate on Friday.
