This is the second contest of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting New York Yankees.
Will Warren is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Trevor Rogers is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore.
Yankees at Orioles prediction, preview
Will Warren has a 4.44 ERA through 152 innings. The FIP is lower at 3.97, as the BABIP is .306 and the strand rate is 69.9%. The strikeout rate is 24%, but the swinging strike rate is only 9.4%, with a 24.4% chase rate. He has only allowed 19 home runs, but the walk rate is 9.3%, and the Statcast numbers are not great: 91 mph average exit velocity, 10.7% barrel rate, and a 45.2% hard-hit rate.
Twelve of the 19 home runs have come off the bats of lefties. The K-BB% is a whopping 23.2% against righties but only 7.9% against lefties, with a walk rate of 11.9%. He has been essentially site neutral, with a slight lean toward being better at home.
In 31 starts, Warren has allowed more than three earned runs eight times and has gone at least six innings in six of them. He was just lit up for six earned runs in Boston in his most recent outing. He has faced Baltimore twice this season. The first meeting came back in April on the road, where he lasted only 3.1 innings, walked two, struck out five, and allowed four earned runs on six hits. The second meeting was at home in June; he went 6.1 innings, walked two, struck out six, and gave up two earned runs on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles rank fourth in strikeout rate, 10th in ISO, and 18th in wOBA.
Trevor Rogers has a microscopic 1.43 ERA through 100.2 innings. His FIP is higher at 2.43, but that is still excellent. The BABIP is just .237, while the strand rate is 85.3%. The strikeout rate is solid at 24%, and the walk rate is 6.2%. His biggest strength has been limiting the long ball, allowing only three home runs all season. The hard-hit rate is 46.8%, but the barrel rate is only 5.9%. He also has a healthy 12.4% swinging strike rate and a 30.9% chase rate.
All three home runs have come off the bats of righties and on the road. His K-BB% is 26.5% against lefties and 16% against righties. His numbers are slightly better at home, although the home run split contributes to a higher FIP on the road.
In 16 starts this season, Rogers has not allowed more than three earned runs and has gone at least six innings in 12 of them. This will be his first time facing the Yankees this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Yankees have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the best ISO, and rank second in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, New York ranks 18th in FIP, while Baltimore ranks 16th.
Yankees at Orioles pick, best bet
The Yankees offense is scary, especially against left-handed pitching, but I’m a believer in Rogers. As for Warren, he is very volatile and gets hit hard.
