This is the finale of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting Athletics.
J. T. Ginn is scheduled to pitch for the Athletics, while Brayan Bello is scheduled to pitch for Boston.
Athletics at Red Sox prediction, preview
J. T. Ginn has thrown 80.2 innings in 21 appearances, 14 of those in a starting capacity. The ERA is 4.69 while the FIP is 4.64. The strikeout rate is 26.5% and the walk rate is 7.8%, but he’s allowed 16 home runs. The barrel rate is 10.3% and the hard hit rate is 46.2%. The swinging strike rate is 11.7% but the chase rate is only 25.4%.
12 of the 16 home runs have been served up at home. Ginn has been Cy Young against righties, as the K-BB% is 28.2%. Against lefties? He’s been Sy Young, posting a 6.66 FIP with an 8.4% K-BB%. Ginn has been much better on the road. The K-BB% is 8.8% higher on the road and the FIP is 2.93 vs. 6.08 at home.
In 14 starts, Ginn has allowed more than three earned runs four times while going at least six innings twice. This will be his first time facing Boston this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox rank eighth in strikeout rate, eighth in ISO, and 11th in MLB in wOBA.
Brayan Bello is averaging 95.1 mph on the fastball and posting a 3.25 ERA. The FIP is higher at 4.13 as the BABIP is only .269. The strikeout rate is only 17.9% while the swinging strike rate is 8.7%. The walk rate is elevated at 8.2% but he’s only allowed 15 home runs in 157.2 innings. The average exit velocity is 88.6 mph, barrel rate is 6.9% and the hard hit rate is 38.9%.
Nine of the 15 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is only 7.2% against lefties while it’s 13.3% against righties. He’s essentially been split neutral.
In 26 starts, Bello has allowed more than three earned runs three times while going at least six innings 16 times. This will be his first time facing the Athletics this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Athletics have the 14th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the fifth-best ISO, and rank seventh in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, the Athletics rank 12th in FIP, while Boston ranks seventh.
Athletics at Red Sox pick, best bet
Bello has done an excellent job of not getting blown up this season. While the numbers look bad for Ginn, he’s pitched well on the road. The Red Sox lefties could give him some trouble, though, so I think he gives up some runs but doesn’t get blasted.
