This is the finale of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Cleveland Guardians.
Tanner Bibee is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland, while Tarik Skubal is scheduled to pitch for Detroit.
Guardians at Tigers prediction, preview
Tanner Bibee has a 4.44 ERA and 4.52 FIP through 170.1 innings this season. The strikeout rate is 20.9% while the walk rate is 7%. He’s allowed 27 home runs. The average exit velocity is 88.6 mph, barrel rate is 8.3% and the hard-hit rate is 37%. The swinging strike rate is 10.1%. All fine numbers. Not great. Not poor. Unlike the porridge in the Three Little Bears, this line isn’t perfect, just passable. That said, he’s coming off a complete-game shutout with 10 strikeouts and two hits allowed. Granted, it came against the Chicago White Sox, but still impressive.
19 of the 27 home runs have been served up on the road. The numbers against righties and lefties are pretty close, with a slight lean towards righties, as in he’s been better against them. The numbers are also similar at home and on the road, with the big discrepancy in the home runs which makes the FIP 5.27 vs. 3.68 at home.
In 29 starts, Bibee has allowed more than three earned runs 13 times and gone at least six innings 14 times. He faced Detroit back in May on the road, going seven innings while walking one batter and striking out eight without allowing an earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers rank third in strikeout rate and 12th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 18th in MLB.
Tarik Skubal has a 2.26 ERA and 2.45 FIP through 183.1 innings. The fastball averages 97.6 mph, the swinging strike rate is 16.5%, the chase rate is 34.6% and the strikeout rate is 32.1%. That all comes with a low 4% walk rate with 17 home runs allowed. The average exit velocity is only 86.1 mph, barrel rate is 8.4% and the hard-hit rate is 32.7%. Man, he is so, so good and definitively one of the best pitchers in MLB.
16 of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 11 of the 17 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 27.2% against lefties and 28.3% against righties. He’s been site neutral.
In 29 starts, Skubal has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 21 times. He has faced Cleveland twice this season. Back in May at home, Skubal pitched a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts and two hits allowed. In July on the road, he went seven innings, struck out 10 batters and allowed three hits without an earned run.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians have the 11th-highest strikeout rate, the 22nd-best ISO, and rank 27th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, Cleveland ranks first in FIP while Detroit ranks 26th since August 1.
Guardians at Tigers pick, best bet
I’m taking Skubal and the under, easy peasy. Disclaimer: It’s rarely easy picking games, but I always feel good being on the side of Skubal as he works to solidify another Cy Young candidacy.
