The Buffalo Bills will host the Miami Dolphins in a Thursday Night AFC East battle. Buffalo entered the season expected to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and has looked the part to this point. They have climbed to the betting favorite at +425 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and hold a 2-0 record on the year. Miami enters with the opposite outlook and has dropped to 0-2 with an NFL-worst -31 point differential.
The season could get out of hand quickly for the Dolphins if they do not find a way to turn things around. This is not an easy matchup to attempt to get on the right track, and Miami will need some significant shifts in the product they put on the field.
Looking at the odds, the Bills are favored by 12.5 points and hold -850 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins hold +575 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 49.5.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 3 opener between these AFC East foes.
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Prop Bets
Josh Allen Over 271.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-112)
Josh Allen has climbed to the NFL MVP co-favorite at +320 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. He has dazzled through the opening two games of the season with 542 passing yards, 89 rushing yards, and four combined passing and rushing touchdowns. Allen is averaging 315.5 combined passing and rushing yards thus far, with this coming in matchups against the Ravens and Jets.
Miami’s defense presents an even friendlier opportunity to add to his MVP-caliber statistical output. The Dolphins rank 31st in points allowed and 26th in yards given up. They also rank 30th in net yards per pass attempt, 24th in passing yards allowed, and 25th in rushing yards allowed. Miami has given up the highest EPA per play, ranks fifth-worst in DVOA, and has the third-worst PFF defensive grade.
Allen will lead the charge with his arm, but Miami has also given up 57 yards on the ground to opposing quarterbacks this season. The three-time Pro Bowler is also averaging 46.2 rushing yards per game in his career against the Dolphins. This is a matchup that I feel Miami will have little resistance to this Bills offense. Count on Allen having a great chance to add to his MVP resume and be ready to put on a show in the prime-time matchup. With both his arms and legs factors, I prefer the combined over 271.5 passing and rushing yards for Allen in the Thursday Night matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 34.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
On the other side of this potential blowout, the Miami Dolphins should be expected to play from behind for the bulk of this matchup. It has been a nightmare start to the season for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins alike. Through two games, he has completed 40 of his 55 pass attempts for 429 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. These came against the Patriots and Colts to this point. It is also worth noting that Zach Wilson checked in for Tagoavailo during the opening game loss for eight pass attempts with the game out of reach.
When the Dolphins’ offense is fully rolling, it is built upon quick passes from Tagovailoa that allow the Miami playmakers to attack in open space. To this point, there has been no consistent success in this. Tyreek Hill has been kept in check with 10 receptions for 149 yards and no touchdowns thus far. Buffalo also has a strong front seven, with three sacks tallied already this season. In some ways, this should force the Dolphins’ offense back toward their desired play style.
While Mike McDaniel has not exactly inspired confidence in his press conference this season, the reality is the Dolphins cannot just accept defeat and have to find some ways to fight. With most of the same key pieces in place, this used to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. Look for Miami to attempt to get back to their roots by leaning on their quick passing game, and for the game script to force them to attack through the air throughout. Whether it is a proactive adjustment or by necessity with the Dolphins trailing the game, expect Tagovailoa to air it out over 34.5 times, just as he did in seven of his 11 games played last year.
James Cook to Record 25+ Receiving Yards (+206)
Miami has looked especially vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball to opposing running backs out of the backfield. Through the opening two games, they have given up 146 total receiving yards to the running back position. This is the third-worst mark in the NFL. It has come in major gashes, with the Colts and Patriots combining for an average of 13.2 yards per catch to their running backs.
This is a good spot for James Cook, who has gotten off to a strong start to the season. Through two games, he has 176 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while adding 61 receiving yards through the air. Cook has tallied as many as 445 receiving yards over a season and has had at least 16 receiving yards in each of the past four matchups with Miami.
The standard receiving yard prop for Cook is set at 12.5 for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook. But I am willing to push the total even higher. Cook pulled 58 receiving yards against the Ravens in the opening week. He also tallied 25 receiving yards in a matchup with the Dolphins last year and 48 receiving yards against Miami in 2023. Count on Cook remaining active in the rushing attack as well, but there is some intriguing value in his passing props based on the context of this matchup. Don’t be shocked if it comes in one big play, and for Buffalo to be prepared to use him out of the backfield throughout. I am backing Cook to record 25+ receiving yards in the Thursday Night matchup and believe the +206 odds on DraftKings are excellent value based on the matchup.
