The Padres and Mets collide in September with both clubs chasing playoff certainty. San Diego sits in firm Wild Card position, still pushing to keep pressure on the Dodgers, while New York clings to a slimmer margin in the race. The Padres bring steadier form, riding consistent run prevention and timely power against left-handed pitching, while the Mets lean on Pete Alonso’s bat to offset nagging injuries and lineup gaps. Every pitch in this series feels like October, because for both dugouts it’s about more than tonight’s box score—it’s about leverage, seeding, and survival. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Mets and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Padres prediction, preview
Nick Pivetta has been one of the National League’s most reliable arms in 2025, entering this start at 13–5 with a 2.73 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 180 strikeouts across 171.1 innings. He’s been precise and efficient, carrying a batting average against of just .191 and limiting hitters to scattered singles when ahead in counts. His last outing was textbook: seven scoreless innings against Cincinnati with four hits allowed, fastball command on point, slider biting down. That kind of form isn’t fleeting; it’s been the story of his season.
David Peterson has been serviceable for New York, but his line tells a different story: 9–5, 3.77 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 162.1 innings with 148 strikeouts. The WHIP explains the problem—more traffic, more stressful innings, more chances for damage. Advanced stats add layers: his xERA sits in the low 4s, xwOBA around .330, hard-hit rate at 46%, and hitters are averaging nearly 91 mph exit velocity against him. His last three starts underscore the volatility—10.95 ERA, 2.19 WHIP in that stretch—and he’s been tagged for crooked numbers early, forcing the Mets to play from behind.
Offensively, San Diego enters with more momentum. They’ve slugged .458 over their last 10 games, hitting 16 home runs in that span, and they’ve particularly punished lefties with selective aggression. Manny Machado’s steadying presence remains a problem for pitchers, and he’s riding into this matchup with good barrel numbers and solid swing rates. Rookie Jackson Merrill has added juice, with five home runs in the last 10 days, while Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to anchor the order with power and speed. The Padres as a unit have been seeing more pitches, drawing walks, and turning them into extra-base results.
The Mets counter with Pete Alonso, and he’s still the guy who can flip a game in one swing—32 homers and an OPS in the mid-.750s tell you the power is real even in a down cycle. Francisco Álvarez has chipped in with better plate appearances, hitting .255/.340/.426 over the last 10 games, but beyond that, the lineup is thin. Injuries have forced changes: Luis Torrens is sidelined with a forearm issue, Tyrone Taylor is out with a hamstring injury, and Luis Guillorme is also missing time with a shoulder injury. Those absences stretch the roster, leaving the Mets reliant on Alonso’s homers and Lindor’s all-around steadiness. That’s not enough against a right-hander in Pivetta’s current groove.
Padres vs. Mets pick, best bet
The Padres’ staff has a 3.80 ERA across the last 10 games, handling innings without meltdown frames, while New York’s relief unit ranks in the bottom half of the league in stranding inherited runners. It’s been the same script repeatedly: Peterson doesn’t make it deep, the Mets’ bullpen enters early, and leverage innings spiral. With Pivetta consistently covering six or seven frames, San Diego can script to its best relievers and keep the Mets boxed in.
Tonight’s forecast is neutral—low 60s, light wind. No edge to either side. The edge comes from execution, recent form, and roster health. Pivetta is giving San Diego stability on the mound, and the Padres’ bats are spiking power against lefties. The Mets are battered, leaning on Alonso, and hoping Peterson doesn’t crater early again. That’s not a profile I want to back in what’s effectively a pick’em line.
I’m projecting Padres 5, Mets 2. Pivetta controls contact, Padres crack Peterson for a few early, and San Diego’s bullpen locks down the finish. Padres ML is the play.
Best bet: Padres (+100) at Mets
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