Back on the baseball beat for a quick piece today! All eyes toward the evening slate. Based on my preliminary research for game picks, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from our game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+425)
I’m backing Olson to leave the yard against Brad Lord. The shape is ideal: a locked-in lefty masher facing a righty who’s been homer-prone to lefties, in a park that doesn’t suppress pull-side lift. Olson’s current power baseline is elite on contact: 53.9% hard-hit rate, 13.9% barrel rate, 93.4 mph average EV, .371 xwOBA (2025). That’s the profile i want when i’m hunting a single-swing cash.
Olson just homered again on Tuesday and is riding a heater with multi-extra-base games in this set, including his 27th HR of 2025 and a four-in-five stretch entering today. The matchup sweetener is Lord’s lefty split: left-handed hitters are at .274/.350/.490 with 10 HR in 52.2 IP (1.71 HR/9) off him in 2025, and he’s been leaking loud air contact. Olson’s batted-ball mix (tight pull power with back-spin) plays cleanly against Lord’s fastball/slider look, and the Braves should stack traffic in front of him quickly.
I also like the lineup context: even despite their underwhelming seasons, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies are goot table-setters. Olson should see at least one premium thump count in his first two trips. Finally, Olson’s 2025 xSLG sits at .507 with a top-10 average EV; if Lord is behind in the zone, the mistake window is thin. HR props are inherently volatile, but this is the exact cocktail i target: an A-tier batted-ball engine, a homer-tilting opponent split, and tangible, numerical recent form. I’m comfortable playing this at standard HR-prop plus money and would still nibble if the market nudges shorter, as long as it stays comfortably north of +250.
Kevin Gausman u2.5 total runs allowed (-130)
I’m riding Gausman’s current groove and underlying contact profile to fade runs. The headline: 17.0 IP, 1 ER (0.53 ERA) in September, with back-to-back gems (8.0 IP, 1 ER at NYY; 9.0 IP, 0 ER vs HOU). Season-long run prevention is steady and deserved: 3.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. The contact math backs the Under: Gausman has allowed a .306 xwOBA in 2025, driven by the usual splitter-led diet of bad swings and dead-zone contact. When he lands early strikes, he’s ruthless stretching away from barrels; that’s mattered against lineups that lean on lift.
Tampa Bay’s recent run production has skidded, and their chase-and-miss against premium secondaries has translated to softer early contact and shorter innings from rallies. With Gausman carrying deep-start efficiency right now (17 innings over his last two), volume also works for us: fewer traffic spikes, more quick zeros. I’m also factoring in game script—Toronto’s bullpen has been on a heater during their win streak, but i’m projecting minimal leverage before the seventh because Gausman is sequencing so cleanly through top halves.
Even if a solo lands (he allowed 21 HR in 177.2 IP this year), the Under tolerates one mistake; what we can’t afford is the clustered inning, and Gausman’s hard-hit avoidance and strike-throwing profile is built to prevent exactly that. Price-wise, anything in the -130 to -105 corridor has value for me given current form and skill fit; i’d pass only if the market craters to a short plus and signals hidden weather/umpire drift. Under 2.5 is my preferred angle over outs/Ks because of the splitter’s inning-to-inning volatility—fewer earned runs gives us multiple paths to cash (weak contact, double-plays, quick hooks for Tampa).
Wyatt Langford to hit a home run (+400)
I’m buying Langford’s second-half gains against Cristian Javier’s fly-ball lean. The second-year player’s bat has graduated from loud tools to bankable impact: 91.4 mph average EV, 48.4% hard-hit, 13.9% barrel rate, .350 xwOBA (2025). The shape has sharpened too—xSLG up to .453 with better lift (30.6% FB, 27.0% LD) and more authoritative contact on heaters (.387 xwOBA vs four-seamers). That pairs neatly with Javier’s current run: 4.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 2025, and in September he’s at 6.97 ERA (10.1 IP, eight ER). More telling for HR-hunting, Javier has produced far more air than ground so far (51 fly balls vs 22 grounders) across his 2025 workload, and when he’s behind, the four-seamer flattens enough to live on the inner third.
Langford’s bat speed holds at premium levels, and his 47 HR-quality blasts + barrels stack says the single-swing path is very live if Javier misses up. Langford’s .206 xISO growth means even just-misses carry. The park isn’t a cheat code, but it won’t smother properly struck balls to left-center, and Langford’s opposite-gap carry is real. I’m pricing this like a standard power-bat HR prop: plus money in the +350 is my pocket is my target, and DK has it right around +400. I’m content playing smaller if the market steams, as long as it never dips to short chalk (it won’t).
Variance disclaimer always applies on HRs, but the bet here is about converging arrows—measurable year-over-year impact gains, a pitcher giving up elevated air contact in recent outings, and a lineup that should ensure Langford gets two cracks with count leverage. That’s enough signal to fire on the big-swing outcome.
