This is the second contest of a four-game series in Tampa Bay between the Rays and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Jose Berrios is scheduled to pitch for Toronto, while Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay.
Blue Jays at Rays prediction, preview
José Berríos has a 3.99 ERA and 4.52 FIP through 160 innings this season. His strikeout rate is 20.1%, and his walk rate is 7.8%. Berríos gets hit hard, with a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, an 11.1% barrel rate, and a 42.6% hard-hit rate. He’s allowed 24 home runs.
Seventeen of the 24 home runs have come off the bats of righties. His K-BB% is 4.9% higher against righties, but due to the home runs, his FIP rises to 5.09. Berríos has been site neutral.
In 29 starts, Berríos has allowed more than three earned runs eight times, while going at least six innings in 14 of them. He has faced the Rays twice this season. The first meeting was at home back in May, when he went 5.1 innings, walked three, and struck out four while allowing five earned runs on five hits. The second meeting came two starts later in Tampa Bay, where Berríos went six innings, walked one, and struck out three while allowing three earned runs on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays rank 12th in strikeout rate and 15th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 11th in MLB.
Ryan Pepiot averages 95.1 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 3.59 ERA. His FIP is higher at 4.40, as his BABIP sits at just .250. The strikeout rate is solid at 24.6%, but the walk rate is elevated at 8.7%. He’s allowed 26 home runs in 163 innings. His swinging strike rate is 11.7%.
Sixteen of the 26 home runs have come off the bats of righties, while 17 have been surrendered at home. His K-BB% is 4.5% higher against lefties, and his FIP is over a run lower in those matchups. His K-BB% is also 7.4% higher at home, though the home run discrepancy drives his home FIP up.
In 29 starts, Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs just six times. He’s gone at least six innings in 17 of those starts. He has not allowed an earned run in three straight outings. Pepiot faced Toronto back in May at home, going seven innings, walking one, and striking out five without allowing an earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have the 30th-highest strikeout rate, the 13th-best ISO, and rank second in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Toronto ranks 20th in FIP, while Tampa Bay ranks seventh.
Blue Jays at Rays pick, best bet
I like Pepiot to continue pitching well, although he may give up at least one earned run in this one. I never have faith in Berrios.
