The Bucs are coming off a tight win over the Falcons back in Week 1, in a game that Atlanta left a lot of big plays out on the field. Tampa overcame key injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line, but still found a way to get the job done. Now the Bucs go on the road for the second consecutive week, and I’m not sure they’ll be quite as fortunate against an elite Houston defense.
Atlanta has looked solid on defense through two weeks of the season, and was able to limit Baker Mayfield to barely over a 50% completion rate. Tampa also only managed 101 rushing yards on 23 carries (4.4 YPC) — but with Mayfield scrambling for 39 of those yards. The Texans limited a Rams team that just hung 33 points on the Titans to 14 points back in Week 1. Houston was tremendous stopping the run, allowing fewer than three yards per carry, so a lot of this game will be on Mayfield’s shoulders. That’s not a good thing with the thin WR room and limited protection.
The Texans have a terrific secondary, as well as a strong pass rush, which should really impact the Bucs in this game. Houston also struggled offensively in Week 1, failing to reach the end zone and settling for three field goals. That combination initially had me looking towards the under in this game, which has been bet down four points since open. While I still think the under is a decent play, I’m more convinced on the Houston side of the game.
Michael Penix threw for nearly 300 yards against Tampa in the opener, and I think the Texans should find more offensive production in this one. Nico Collins was only targeted five times against the Rams, turning them into three receptions. Expect to see Collins much more involved in this game, as Houston has openly discussed getting him the ball more.
The betting splits for this one are also extremely sharp towards the Texans. Houston has only 29% of the tickets on the moneyline, but for 57% of the money. It’s even a larger gap on the spread, as the Texans have just 36% of the tickets, but for 70% of the money. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best price in the market on the moneyline at just -130, which I can’t pass up on.
NFL Pick: Texans ML (-130) 1-unit
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