This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Chicago Cubs.
Jameson Taillon is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Braxton Ashcraft is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Cubs at Pirates prediction, preview
Jameson Taillon has a 4.15 ERA through 110.2 innings. The walk rate is only 5.1%. Good. The strikeout rate at 18.5%? Meh. The 23 home runs? Gross. The FIP is higher at 4.97 as the BABIP is only .241 while the strand rate is 78.2%. The average exit velocity is 88.5 mph but the barrel rate is 9%.
15 of the 23 home runs have been served up on the road. The strikeout rate is much higher against lefties, but so is the walk rate, which makes the K-BB% only slightly higher. The K-BB% is 6.9% lower on the road and the HR/9 is 2.34.
In 20 starts, Taillon has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. Taillon faced Pittsburgh in mid-June, going 6.1 innings, walking two and striking out seven while allowing two earned runs on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates rank seventh in strikeout rate and 30th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 30th in MLB.
Braxton Ashcraft has appeared in 23 games and pitched 58.1 innings this season, but only six of those were in a starting capacity consisting of 25 innings. In those innings, he’s allowed a slash of .161/.232/.195, struck out 26 and walked seven without allowing a home run. The ERA is 1.08! The fastball averages 96.7 mph, the average exit velocity is 87.5 mph, the barrel rate is 3.7% and the hard hit rate is 37.2%. The swinging strike rate is 11% but the chase rate is only 28.4%.
Ashcraft has allowed only two home runs, both of the bat of righties and on the road. The K-BB% is 17.1% against righties and 10.7% against lefties. At home the K-BB% is only 9.2% while it’s 19.4% on the road.
Ashcraft has not allowed more than three earned runs in any outing and has not gone six innings yet. He faced the Cubs in Chicago last month, going five innings, not issuing a walk and striking out four while allowing one earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have the 25th-highest strikeout rate, the sixth-best ISO, and rank ninth in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Chicago ranks fourth in FIP, while Pittsburgh ranks 15th.
Cubs at Pirates pick, best bet
The Pirates aren’t a great offense, but Taillon has been poor on the road. I think the Pirates can get to him. On the flip side, Ashcraft has been so, so good. I like him to shut down the Cubs. Give me the home dog. Bow wow wow yippee yo yippee yah.
