Veterans Memorial Stadium stages a choice Group of Five matinee: Memphis rolls in 2–0 off a 38–16 road thumping of Georgia State, while Troy returns home 1–1 after leading Clemson 16–3 before the Tigers’ second-half surge flipped a 27–16 loss. The programs met last year in Memphis, a 38–17 Tigers win; this time the scene shifts to a Trojans team that wants to lean on its run game and long possessions, and a Memphis side that’s been ruthlessly balanced through two weeks. Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 3’s game between the Troy Trojans and the Memphis Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Troy vs. Memphis prediction, preview
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has given Memphis composure and punch. He’s hit 79.2% with 395 yards (1 TD, 1 INT) and added 149 rush yards with two scores, and the structure around him looks sharper than a typical early-September road outfit. Running back Sutton Smith is pacing the ground game with 134 yards and two touchdowns plus outlet duty in the passing game, while hammer back Makari Bodiford has finished drives with two short-yardage touchdowns. Wide receiver Cortez Braham has worked the intermediate windows (five catches, 84 yards, one TD), a nice complement to Lewis’ keeper game.
The trench and efficiency profile match the eye test: Memphis sits 36th overall and third on offense in the team power ranks provided, and the Tigers carry real down-to-down quality with EPA per run at 0.17 and EPA per pass at 0.38. Clean-pocket metrics back it up: a 102.6 passer rating when kept clean, a higher big-time throw rate (5.08%), and fewer turnover-worthy plays (3.39%) than the opponent. That offensive ceiling is paired with a defense graded 56th that travels—linebacker Sam Brumfield already owns eight tackles, two TFL, and two sacks, with defensive back Drue Watts flashing in pressures (two TFL, one sack) and edge Jalen Bell adding 1.5 sacks.
Troy’s identity is familiar: pound the rock, win the clock, and hit selective shots. Quarterback Will Crowder has thrown for 367 yards on 60% with four touchdowns but three interceptions and has chipped in 53 rushing yards and a score. The backbone is running back Tae Meadows, who’s ripped 262 yards at 6.7 yards per carry; wide receiver Tray Taylor (five for 97, two TDs) and tight end Ethan Conner (seven for 73, one TD) give Crowder dependable targets. Up front and in aggregate, though, the advanced profile lags a tier behind Memphis: Troy’s offense carries EPA per run of 0.04 and EPA per pass of 0.01, their clean-pocket passer rating sits at 79.5, and their turnover-worthy play rate is higher at 4.41%. Defensively the Trojans rank 127th in the same team power lens and have allowed a completion rate that invites Memphis’ RPO and play-action rhythm; safety Devin Lafayette (13 tackles, one TFL, one sack) and linebacker Jordan Stringer (14 tackles, one TFL) will need to be near-perfect fitting inside-zone to keep the Tigers off schedule.
Memphis vs. Troy pick, best bet
The Tigers actually run a touch more than they pass (53.5% run rate), and that meshes with their efficiency edges—positive rushing EPA and top-quartile passing EPA—to control early downs and protect Lewis from long obvious passing situations. Troy, by contrast, throws slightly more than it runs (51.5% pass rate) but has gotten less per dropback than Memphis, and the Trojans’ margin for error shrinks if they’re nudged behind the chains. Memphis also carries a pronounced passing advantage in the “when clean” split and has the better explosive-to-mistake ratio (higher big-time throw %, lower turnover-worthy %). Overlay those with the unit grades—Memphis offense 3rd, Troy offense 48th; Memphis defense 56th, Troy defense 127th—and the path to repeated red-zone trips tilts blue.
Troy’s best counter is tempo control—they average 68.0 snaps and can sit on the ball—but Memphis has traveled with run defense pop and a front seven that generates negative plays. If the Trojans need Crowder to chase on third-and-medium repeatedly, Brumfield and the simulated pressures that showed up against Georgia State become swing factors. Memphis’ red-zone finish last week (eight rushing touchdowns on the season already) also matters here because Troy’s cover path demands field goals, not sevens.
I see Memphis 30, Troy 23 — The Tigers bring superior efficiency on both axes—EPA per pass and EPA per run, clean-pocket production, and mistake suppression—and their skill core with Brendon Lewis, Sutton Smith, and Cortez Braham should turn that edge into a one-score but clear road cover.
Best bet: Memphis -4.5 (-110) at Troy
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