This is the second contest of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Bubba Chandler is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh while Andrew Alvarez is slated to start for Washington.
Pirates at Nationals prediction, preview
Chandler was a much-hyped prospect, but he’s experiencing some “welcome to the majors” moments right now. Through 14.2 innings, he’s sporting a 7.36 ERA. Sure, the .348 BABIP and 56.6% strand rate suggest some bad luck, leading to a more reasonable 4.51 FIP, but there are still concerns. The strikeout rate is just 18.2%, with a 9.7% swinging strike rate and a 25% chase rate. Meanwhile, the average exit velocity is 92.9 mph, barrel rate is 10.4%, and hard-hit rate is 41.7%.
The positives: his walk rate is only 6.1%, he’s allowed just two home runs, and he’s averaging 98.4 mph on the fastball.
His K-BB% against righties is only 10.3%. The home/road splits are fairly even, though both of his home runs have come at home.
Chandler has appeared in four games this season, making only one start—his most recent outing. In that game, he walked three, struck out three, and was rocked for nine earned runs in 2.2 innings by the Milwaukee Brewers. In his other three appearances, he went four innings each time. This will be his first time facing Washington this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals rank 23rd in strikeout rate, 21st in ISO, and 19th in wOBA.
Andrew Alvarez is a lefty averaging 91.1 mph on his fastball. He’s made his first two MLB starts this season, going five and 4.2 innings, respectively. His ERA sits at 1.86, but that’s been aided by a .111 BABIP and 92.1% strand rate, resulting in a much higher 4.80 FIP. Control has been an issue—he’s already walked five batters. That said, he’s done a good job limiting hard contact: average exit velocity is 86.5 mph, barrel rate is 3.6%, and hard-hit rate is 35.7%. However, the swinging strike rate is just 4.8%, with a paltry 17.3% chase rate. The sample size is very small, though.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate, rank 26th in ISO, and sit 29th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Pittsburgh ranks 13th in FIP, while Washington ranks 28th.
Pirates at Nationals pick, best bet
Such a funny matchup. The Pirates boast the flamethrower who’s been getting hit hard but been somewhat unlucky. The Nationals have the soft-tossing lefty that limits hard contact but has been very, very fortunate. Neither offense is a juggernaut.
