The Steelers/Jets game had the lowest total of Week 1 and ended up with 66 points, the most on the main NFL slate. We know nothing! An injury here, game plan exploitation of a weakness there, a blocked extra point, or a dropped pass on fourth down are just a few of so many variables that can turn a game upside down. We will never get things perfect, at least until I fix the flux capacitor I bought off Craigslist. In the meantime, all we can do is navigate the range of outcomes as best we can and put our NFL DFS lineups in the best position for glory.
Here are my favorite QB/WR stacks for Week 2.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
5. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,300) & Jaylen Waddle ($5,400), Dolphins vs. Patriots
I used to clown my buddy, who is a Dolphins fan, with constant beratements of “Squish the Fish! Squish the Fish!” I didn’t have the heart to do it last week. Tua was atrocious, posting the worst EPA per dropback by a wide margin (-0.63). He averaged 5.0 yards per attempt, threw two interceptions, was sacked three times, finished with 114 yards and ended with a QBR of 3.8. The offensive line is an issue and Mike McDaniel’s offense has been figured out.
That said, I am channeling my inner Jerry Maguire and asking you fine readers, “Who’s coming with me?” There’s upside here if these Dolphins don’t collapse again.
Miami had to travel to Indianapolis in Week 1 against a defense that has talent and is now being conducted by Lou Anarumo, who is a grizzled veteran in the game, had all offseason to plan for the Dolphins and uses multiple fronts and coverages to disguise and confuse. The Patriots’ defense racked up four sacks and an interception in Week 1, but Geno Smith torched them for 362 yards! His EPA per dropback of 0.3 was the seventh-highest mark of Week 1.
This game is in Miami. It will be the home opener. It’s going to be hot and muggy with a chance of thunderstorms. New England will be without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez again. It’s well within the range of outcomes that the Dolphins offense gets busy. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, only that it’s possible.
This game has a 43.5 total and with recency bias, ownership could be low. The prices are palatable as well.
4. Drake Maye ($5,200) & Kayshon Boutte ($4,500), Patriots at Dolphins
The Patriots’ pass defense was bad in Week 1. The Dolphins’ pass defense was worse, posting a 0.4 EPA per dropback, the fourth-highest mark. The quarterback pressure rate was only 24.2% and the unit already lost a starting cornerback in Storm Duck, who is not good to begin with.
Since I think the Dolphins could put up points in this one, that would force New England to respond aggressively in kind. In Week 1, Maye went 30-of-46 for 287 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He rushed four times for 11 yards. Kayshon Boutte led the team’s wide receivers in snaps (82%) and targets (8) and continues showing growing rapport with his quarterback.
3. Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) & Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,700), Jaguars at Bengals
I kind of hate this recommendation because Lawrence isn’t a particularly good quarterback, but this game has the highest total on the slate at 49.5 and there’s a chance it’s a back-and-forth affair.
The Bengals’ defense limited the Browns to 16 points in Week 1 while racking up two sacks and two interceptions, but I have skepticism that the unit is a good one. There’s a new defensive coordinator and many of the pieces are the same from a defense that hasn’t been good recently.
The Jaguars’ defense posted the fifth-best EPA per dropback in Week 1, completely stymieing the Carolina Panthers, but that’s like saying I demolished my 13-year-old son in hoops.
Brian Thomas only caught one of seven targets for 11 yards in Week 1. This could be a nice bounce back spot for him and the ownership could be lower due to recency bias and the lower price point for Travis Hunter. Last season, Thomas put up over 20 FPTS seven times, with two of those showings over 30 FPTS.
2. Joe Burrow ($6,600) & Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Bengals vs. Jaguars
Burrow went 14-of-23 for 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Chase brought in two of five targets for 26 yards. The Bengals have historically been slow starters but Cleveland’s defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, has done a good job against the Bengals’ offense recently. And the teams are intimately familiar with each other.
That won’t be the case in Week 2 against the Jaguars. This game will also be the home opener for Cincinnati, and despite the impressive performance by the Jaguars’ defense in Week 1, the unit had the worst pass defense last season.
Both Burrow and Chase are expensive, which crimps roster construction, but that could also lower ownership. I will be curious to see how it plays out because many DFS players flock to the highest total. Regardless, the upside for the Burrow and Chase is massive. Last season, Chase had three games over 40 FPTS with a high of 58.4!
1. Joe Flacco ($5,000) & Cedric Tillman ($4,300), Browns at Ravens
This could go horribly wrong, as Flacco could throw three interceptions and get benched. But the price, expected volume and game environment are just too positive to ignore.
Flacco attempted 45 passes in Week 1. When he started five games in 2023 with the Browns, Flacco attempted over 40 passes in four of those contests. He does have to be flawless though due to his lack of rushing ability.
Baltimore is favored by 11.5 points in this one, so they are expected to put up points and dominate. Cleveland will likely be chasing points. In addition, Baltimore is stout against the run, which makes the path of least resistance through the air.
Tillman played 88% of the snaps and garnered eight targets last week. Jerry Jeudy had the exact same numbers, but he’s priced $1,000 higher than Tillman.
The volume is going to be there. Whether Flacco and Tillman do anything with it is unknown. As mentioned in the beginning, this could all go terribly wrong. But, but, but… what if Flacco and Tillman each put up 20 FPTS while the higher-priced options end up in the same range?
