There’s no sugarcoating this one. This is just a pointless, late-season matchup between two clubs at the bottom of their respective divisions. We’re not even getting one of the Pirates’ younger, more interesting starters.
However, a face-off between two bad teams still means hundreds of possible betting opportunities. Let’s preview this forgettable matchup with the help of some of those odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Apologies if that opening paragraph was a little hurtful to fans of Mitch Keller, but the veteran RHP is a little mundane at this point in his career. Like, there’s a reason that the Pirates were trying to ship him away at the trade deadline. Keller simply is who he is, as he inches towards another 2.5 fWAR campaign with an ERA hovering around 4.00. As per usual, Keller got off to a hot start in 2025, yet he’s cooled down significantly in the year’s second-half, pitching to a 6.02 ERA and a 5.04 FIP since the All-Star break. Even his recent “good” outings haven’t been all that encouraging. To wit, on August 31, Keller did not allow an earned run at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. However, he did allow four unearned runs in five frames. See what I mean?
Keller doesn’t even have any luck — and I’m not only talking about a .350 opponent BABIP across his past nine starts. You’d think a matchup with the Nationals would at least be a break for the right-hander, but Washington’s actually been hitting quite well in September. In fact, the Nationals are one of just four teams with at least a .200 ISO in the month, as Daylen Lile, Josh Bell and Luis Garcia have been red-hot. You know, the usual suspects.
I can not say the same about Pittsburgh’s bats. The Pirates rank dead-last in ISO (.118) and second-worst in wRC+ (82) for 2025 as a whole, so none of these struggles are new, yet it feels worth mentioning that the club is hitting a putrid .194 with a 61 wRC+ since September 1. Brad Lord isn’t anything special, but the converted reliever should be able to cobble together a quality start in this matchup on Friday night. “Should” is the operative word, though. Lord has an inflated 4.97 ERA as a starter this season and the underlying metrics are only slightly better.
Pirates vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Nationals ML (-112)
The Nationals have somehow won seven of their last 10 and the Pirates can’t hit. I’ll side with the slight home favorite.
Strong Lean: Bryan Reynolds 2+ Total Bases (+122)
Reynolds has been a rare bright spot for Pittsburgh as of late, managing a 139 wRC+ since the beginning of August. He might not score a run, but he’ll smack a double.
