This is the openers of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Trevor Rogers is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Chris Bassitt is slated to start for Toronto.
Orioles at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Trevor Rogers has been unreal this season. Through 95.2 innings, he’s posting a 1.51 ERA. The strikeout rate is 23.8%, while the walk rate is 5.5%. He’s allowed only three home runs, and the barrel rate is 6.2%. The swinging strike rate is 12.4%, and the chase rate is 31.2%. Now, he has been fortunate with a .235 BABIP and 85.2% strand rate, but that only takes the FIP up to 2.39.
All three home runs have come off the bat of righties and on the road. The K-BB% is 25.8% against lefties and 16.7% against righties. He’s essentially been site-neutral, aside from the home run discrepancy.
In 15 starts, Rogers has not allowed more than three earned runs. He’s only allowed at least two earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings in all but three starts. This will be his first time facing Toronto this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 30th in strikeout rate and 13th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks third in MLB.
Chris Bassitt has been solid this season, pitching 161 innings while posting a 3.97 ERA and 4.11 FIP. The strikeout rate is 22.6%, the walk rate is 7%, and he’s allowed 22 home runs. He’s done a good job of limiting hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 87.5 mph and the hard-hit rate is 36%. The barrel rate is 8.6%.
Thirteen of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 8.1% higher against righties. It’s 6.3% higher at home, while the FIP is 1.11 lower.
In 29 starts, Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings 13 times. He faced Baltimore in late July on the road, lasting only 2.1 innings, walking one and striking out four while allowing six earned runs on seven hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the ninth-best ISO, and rank 19th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Baltimore ranks 19th in FIP, while Toronto ranks 17th.
Orioles at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Rogers has been so good this season, and I won’t be jumping in front of or off this train. I do have some concerns with Bassitt and think he gives up some runs, but without getting decimated.
