The Bills are heading into MetLife Stadium on Sunday to take on the Jets in Week 2.
Buffalo was the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 with a 41-40 fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens. For the Jets, it was the opposite, as they threw away a game they had control of against the Steelers to lose 34-32. Both squads will be looking to improve defensively in Week 2.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 46.5.
Below, I break down this matchup between the Bills and the Jets and give a pick for the game.
Bills vs. Jets prediction
Buffalo is clearly the better team here, but this game might be closer than people think.
In last season’s matchup between these teams at MetLife, the Bills won 23-20 after a go-ahead field goal late in the game. In 2023, Zach Wilson led New York to a 22-16 win after Aaron Rodgers was injured on the first drive of the game. In 2022, it was once again a Zach Wilson-led Jets team that beat Buffalo 20-17 at MetLife.
The Jets always play the Bills close at home, while the same can’t be said for their performances in Buffalo. After the Jets and Justin Fields put up 32 points in Week 1 against an impressive Steelers defense, I am even more confident that this one will finish as a one-score game.
But the question is, what’s the best bet for this matchup?
Bills vs. Jets pick, best bet
I was tempted to take the Jets to cover this spread as they have done in each of their last three games against Buffalo at home, but Josh Allen is so good that it scared me off. That and the fact that the New York defense looked awful against the Steelers. Instead, I’m going to take the over in this one after both offenses looked to be firing on all cylinders in Week 1, and both defenses looked putrid.
For the Jets, it’s the secondary that is a concern. That’s never what you want to hear when you are about to face the MVP of the league. They allowed Aaron Rodgers to dice them up, going 22/30 for 244 yards and four touchdowns.
For the Bills, it was primarily the run defense that was a huge issue. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry had their way on Sunday Night Football as the Ravens rushed for 238 yards as a team, averaging 8.2 yards per carry.
The strength of the Jets’ offense is running the football, while the strength of the Bills’ offense is through the air. New York were able to run it with ease against Pittsburgh, running for 182 yards and averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Josh Allen threw it all over the yard on Sunday, going 33/46 for 394 yards and two touchdowns. This spells trouble for both defenses, and ultimately, I think both units will struggle mightily on Sunday.
You would think that both defensive units will make a step in the right direction after a week to make adjustments, but I won’t count on it based on what we saw in Week 1. Both of these teams put up points in bunches and failed to stop a nosebleed. There are 10 games in Week 2 with a lower total than this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, and for good reason.
These teams looked great on offense, horrible on defense, and I expect more of the same on Sunday, especially when the Bills’ offense is on the field. I have some faith that Sean McDermott can get that unit straightened out, even if it’s a slight improvement.
