While the Tigers have a firm grip on the AL Central division, the Guardians and Royals are fighting for a potential Wild Card spot. They’ll need some help from other teams as they’re 3.5 and four games back, respectively, from the third Wild Card spot.
They’ll face each other for the final time this season as their four-game set concludes on Thursday, Sep. 11. The winner will gain an advantage in the playoff race.
Cleveland is a -144 favorite, while Kansas City is +119 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Royals vs. Guardians matchup.
Royals vs. Guardians prediction
While no team has clinched a playoff berth yet, it’ll be a challenge for either the Royals or Guardians to sneak into the postseason. The Red Sox and Yankees are the top two Wild Cards, leading the pack by 2.5 games, while the Mariners hold the third spot, 3.5 games ahead of the Guardians and four ahead of the Royals.
There are limited games remaining in the regular season, making tonight’s outing even more impactful toward the playoff picture.
Stephen Kolek is starting for the Royals tonight, making his third start with the team. He began the season with the Padres after debuting in the majors for San Diego last season. Since arriving in Kansas City, he has a 2.08 ERA across 13 innings — it’s a small sample size, but he’s been impactful. His overall 2025 ERA is 3.88 through 92.2 innings.
Kolek pitched seven innings against the Twins in his last start, allowing six hits and two earned runs. He pitched six innings, allowing one earned run and four hits against the Tigers in the outing prior. He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, even when he was with the Padres.
The Guardians are sending Gavin Williams to the mound. Another young right-hander, Williams debut in 2023 for the Guardians and is now in his third full MLB season. He has a 3.17 ERA through 150.2 innings — easily the best season of his career.
Williams pitched back-to-back one-run outings that lasted exactly seven innings. He took down the Rays and Mariners in these starts, with the only runs coming off solo home runs.
This will be the third time Williams faces the Royals, with him allowing two earned runs in the first two performances.
Royals vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Although the Royals won Wednesday’s matchup, they lost the previous two games in this series. The Guardians have been more consistent lately, winning five straight before yesterday’s loss.
Kansas City, however, lost three straight prior to yesterday’s victory. Kolek is a solid pitcher and has been excellent since arriving in Kansas City, but he’s bound for some regression. He’s not going to hold his 2.08 ERA with the team forever.
The Guardians should score some runs, allowing Williams to have another deep outing.