Week 3’s tilt at the Rose Bowl might legitimately define the tone for UCLA’s 2025 season. An 0–2 start has rattled the program, and the Bruins desperately need stability. DeShaun Foster’s debut has been marred by penalties, turnovers, and defensive lapses. New Mexico arrives with belief, covering a massive number at Michigan and grinding out Idaho State in Week 2. The Lobos are rebuilding under Jason Eck but already play with discipline and toughness. The spread sits at 15.5, the total at 53.5, and the pressure squarely on UCLA. Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 3’s game between the UCLA Bruins and the New Mexico Lobos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
UCLA vs. New Mexico prediction, preview
Tennessee-transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been steady, but unspectacular. Through two games, he’s thrown for 391 yards at 6.2 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions, while leading the Bruins in rushing with 106 yards. Kwazi Gilmer has emerged as his top option, posting 118 receiving yards, but the passing game lacks chunk plays. Running back Jaivian Thomas has averaged 4.4 yards per carry but produced only 60 yards. The Bruins average 324 total yards and just 16.5 points per game, ranking 117th nationally in scoring. More troubling is discipline: 17 penalties for 159 yards and three turnovers in two games. Defensively, they’ve allowed 36.5 points per game and a staggering 70% opponent third-down conversion rate. Those numbers show why UCLA hasn’t led in a game yet.
New Mexico isn’t flashy, but it’s functional. Quarterback Jack Layne has thrown for 363 yards at 64.7% completions, though his 1:3 TD-INT ratio limits explosiveness. Running back Scottre Humphrey has been the difference, hammering for 174 yards and two touchdowns at 6.2 yards per carry. Tight end Dorian Thomas has chipped in 127 receiving yards and two touchdowns, giving Layne a steady safety valve. The Lobos average 319 yards and 24.5 points per game while committing almost no penalties—just nine yards per contest. Their defense remains vulnerable, giving up 419 yards and 28 points per game, but discipline has kept them competitive. Against Michigan, they stayed within 17 as 34.5-point underdogs. Against Idaho State, they rallied late to win by 10. This is a program already exceeding expectations.
New Mexico vs. UCLA pick, best bet
UCLA is 0–5 ATS across its last five and 0–2 ATS this season. They’ve failed to cover in eight of their last nine at the Rose Bowl. New Mexico is 7–3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, including Week 1 at Michigan. UCLA’s games lean under—14 of the last 20—but the Lobos have gone over in six of their last eight on the road. Trends favor New Mexico’s resilience and UCLA’s inability to separate. Discipline also matters: UCLA averages 79.5 penalty yards per game compared to New Mexico’s nine, a staggering gap that swings hidden yardage and momentum.
The matchup hinges on tempo. UCLA must start fast, but nothing this season suggests they will. If they stumble early, Scottre Humphrey can grind clock against a defense surrendering 217 rushing yards per game. Layne doesn’t need heroics; he needs to protect the ball and find Thomas in manageable down-and-distance. UCLA will get its first win—talent will stretch in the second half—but covering a number this wide demands crisp execution and defensive stops. Neither has been present.
I’ve got this one at UCLA 31 – New Mexico 20. UCLA’s talent secures the win, but the Lobos’ discipline, Humphrey’s rushing, and Thomas’ chain-moving catches keep this inside the number. Humphrey’s punishing runs set the tone, while UCLA’s penalty problems cap their margin.
Best bet: New Mexico +15.5 (-110) at UCLA
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